Nifty : Step Sum Analysis 2022

 

Step Sum is the form of a new technical tool to evaluate the psychology of the market. It has been developed by Mark Lundeen and it offers a unique

insight into the psychology of the market. The step sum is simply a running total of UP vs. DOWN  days.

The step sum is a single item  Advance – Decline Line. In other words; if Nifty is down from the previous day’s close, we give it a value of (-1), if they end the day up from the previous day’s close, we give it a value of (+1). So a step sum plot is merely the net sum of up and down market days over time.

Let me build up the algebra for evaluating the step sum ;  X is number of UP days  (simply referred  herein after as UP)  and Y is the number of DOWN days (simply referred  herein after as DOWN)  and the STEP Sum  is equal to  [ X – Y]  Accordingly, the following narrates the Table :

1).          Step sum is 0 (Zero) when Nifty was 1000 , on the starting Day of OHLC value (02 Nov 1995);

2).          On 273th Day (04 Dec 1996) , the step sum reached a value of minus 35 as a result of 119 UP & 154 DOWN  (as  per DATA  in the Table)  & Nifty closed at 788 with Nifty reaching a Significant Low (775)  ; a key observation lowest step sum  from my studies of 6700  days of the NIFTY Index ;

3).          On 1073th Day (23 Feb 2000) the step sum turns Positive at 3 as a result of  538 UP & 535 DOWN & Nifty closed at 1696.40  with Nifty reaching a Significant High (1818) 

3)           On 1,314 th Day (09 Feb 2001), the step sum reached a value of 24 as a result of 669 UP & 645 DOWN & Nifty closed at 1406 with Nifty reaching a Significant High (1416) ;  a key observation  Highest  step sum  from my studies of the initial 2561 days of the NIFTY Index

4)           On 1468 th Day (21 Sep 2001) , the step sum reached a value of minus 2 as a result of 733 UP & 735 DOWN & Nifty closed at 854 with Nifty reaching a Significant Low (850) ;

5)           Subsequently the step sum hovers around  a low value reaching minus 4  and  on two occasions reached a ZERO value , viz., 1690^th Day  when UP days = DOWN days (840)  and again on 1742th days (30 Oct 2002) when UP-days = DOWN-days (871) ;

6)           Thereafter, the step sum  kept growing steadily  reaching 228  when the Nifty reaching  Significant High (6357) on the 3046^th Day (08 JAN 2008)  with 1637 UP  & 1409 DOWN  and Nifty closing at 6288 ;

7)           On 3116^th Day (22 Apr 2008) the step sum reaching high of 234 with 1675 UP & 1441 DOWN and Nifty closing at 5049 ;  a key observation   higher Step Sum topped out  with out a higher value in Nifty  but  starting a correction  ;

8)           On 3244^th day (27 Oct 2008) the step sum went down to 214 as a result of 1729 UP & 1545 DOWN & Nifty closing at 2524  with Significant Low (2253) ;

9)           On 3302^nd day (23 Jan 2009), the step sum went down to 212 with 1757 UP & 1545 DOWN  & Nifty closing at 2679  ;

10)         On 3743^th day (05 Nov 2010)  the  step sum went up to 265 following 2004 UP & 1739 DOWN  & Nifty closing at 6312 while the Significant High 6338 reached ;

11)         On 4020^th day (20 Dec 2011) the step sum went down to 230 following 2125 UP & 1895 DOWN & Nifty closing at 4544 with the Significant Low  4531 reached ;

12)         On 4818^th Day (04 Mar 2015) the step sum went up to 314 following 2566 UP & 2252 DOWN & Nifty closing at 8923  while the Significant High 9119 reached ;

13)         On 5063^rd Day (29 Feb 2016)  the step sum went down to 289 following 2676 UP & 2387 DOWN & Nifty closing at 6987 with the Significant Low  6826  reached

 

14)         On 6019^th Day (20 Jan 2020)  the step sum went up to 379 following 3199 UP & 2818 DOWN & Nifty closing at 12225  while the Significant High  12430 reached ;

13)         On 6064^th Day (24 Mar 2020)   the step sum went down to 366 following 3215 UP & 2849 DOWN & Nifty closing at 7801 with the Significant Low  7511  reached ;

14)         On  6454^th Day (19 Oct 2021)  the step sum went up to  458 following 3456 UP & 2998 DOWN & Nifty closing at 18419  while the Significant High  18604 reached ;

15)         On 6619 th Day (17 Jun 2022)  the step sum went down to 429 following 3524 UP & 3095 DOWN & Nifty closing at 15293  with the Significant Low  15183  reached ; and

16)         On 6700^th Day (14 Oct 2022) the step sum went up to 440 following  3570 UP & 3130 DOWN and the Nifty closing at 17186.

Derived Conclusive Points :  The Step Sum is ALWAYS a function of closing value of the INDEX irrespective of the Nifty  High or Low value. However, the Significant Low/High  in the Step Sum  are co-related with the  Nifty  High or Low value  (often around  historically significant values).

 TABLE (with all DATA)

 

Date	N I F T Y				Step UP		Step DOWN
	High	Low	Close	StepSum	Index	No_UP	Index	N0_DOWN
			1000	0
04-Dec-96	806	775	788	-35	1434	119	1646	-154
23-Feb-00	1818	1689	1696	3	7748	538	7051	-535
09-Feb-01	1416	1396	1406	24	10019	669	9614	-645
21-Sep-01	904	850	854	-2	10831	733	10977	-735
02-Aug-02	958	936	955	-4	11950	840	11995	-844
12-Aug-02	972	961	970	0	11981	845	12011	-845
30-Oct-02	944	936	938	0	12128	871	12190	-871
02-Dec-04	2002	1963	1999	100	16873	1185	15874	-1085
31-Jan-06	3005	2969	3001	137	20260	1349	18259	-1212
04-Dec-06	4015	3992	4001	187	24904	1480	21903	-1293
27-Sep-07	5016	4943	5001	222	29823	1599	25822	-1377
11-Dec-07	6111	5960	6097	222	32569	1625	27472	-1403
08-Jan-08	6357	6222	6288	228	33179	1637	27891	-1409
22-Apr-08	5074	4994	5049	234	36190	1675	32141	-1441
27-Oct-08	2585	2253	2524	214	40162	1729	38637	-1515
23-Jan-09	2766	2662	2679	212	42373	1757	40695	-1545
05-Nov-10	6339	6303	6312	265	55232	2004	49919	-1739
20-Dec-11	4637	4531	4544	230	62082	2125	58538	-1895
30-Dec-11	4690	4609	4624	228	62337	2128	58713	-1900
03-Mar-15	9008	8926	8996	315	82369	2566	74373	-2251
04-Mar-15	9119	8894	8923	314	82369	2566	74447	-2252
11-Feb-16	7209	6960	6976	287	88853	2669	82877	-2382
29-Feb-16	7095	6826	6987	289	89285	2676	83298	-2387
16-Jan-20	12389	12316	12356	381	120312	3199	108957	-2818
20-Jan-20	12431	12217	12225	379	120312	3199	109088	-2820
23-Mar-20	8159	7584	7610	365	122349	3214	115739	-2849
24-Mar-20	8037	7511	7801	366	122540	3215	115739	-2849
18-Oct-21	18543	18445	18477	459	149708	3456	132231	-2997
19-Oct-21	18604	18378	18419	458	149708	3456	132289	-2998
17-Jun-22	15400	15183	15294	429	161706	3524	147413	-3095
14-Oct-22	17349	17170	17186	440	167728	3570	151542	-3130

 

 

Intrinsic Value of Bharat Nidhi (Major shareholder of Bennet Colman & Co Ltd - "Times of India"

 

INTRINSIC Value of a Share in Bharat Nidhi 

For every share in BHARAT NIDHI                        Indirect holdings  of

                                                                               1.78 shares in HDFC BANK (in lieu of TIMES Bank) &

                                                                               25.55 shares in mammoth “Times of India”  B C & Co Ltd

Bennet Colman   is worth  Rs  3,220 crores  & annual income of Rs  225 crores

 Major shareholders collectively own 74.53% of the Equity capital as follows:

 

 

Major wealth are represented by the followings summaries :