Nifty : Ichimoku - Back testing # 2

As Kumo depth or thickness is a function of price volatility, we shall be seeing LESS volatility in coming days. When the senkou span A and B switch places this indicates an OVERALL TREND CHANGE from this longer-term perspective.The "senkou span cross" is an actual trading strategy that utilizes this KUMO TWIST as both an entry as well as a continuation or confirmation signal. Such POINTS ARE IN MID-WEEK & around x'mas in the chart.

Expected: Based on cloud, Nifty is bearish on monday with resistance at 4979, 5078.For the next four days, level 4978 & 5078, 5001 & 5001, 4958 & 5013, and 4964 & 5039 are crucial ; depending on day's Nifty being below or above the cloud, it will be bearish or bullish.

Monday's 'white candle' was restrcted by conversion line; lagging line was around same level (4850) as day's top. Followd by tuesday's Black candle.

Wednesday's Resistance/Support point (5001) is well over current Nifty at 4770; yesterday's Base at 5061, conversion at 4836, lagging at 4805 - there was NO trace OF A BREAK-DOWN OR UP to comply with suggestion for "Kumo cross"; with base being flat at 5019, conversion drifting to 4777 & lagging going up to 4833.

Any late effect ? Thursaday's OUT OF NOWHERE gap-up openning at 5008 & top at 5032 during morning looked like confirmation of break UP of 'kumo' cloud ; however, it being from below cloud (as such weak),eventually gave up most gains resulting in a black candle below the cloud.

AM not chart savvy, please feel free to carry on this line & may consider
http://www.marketcalls.in/metatrader/free-nifty-futures-realtime-charts-in-metatrader-platform.html
for on-line support.

Nifty : Ichimoku - Back testing

On 12/9/11,OBSERVATION (O) base line crossed down below cloud & conversion in lower level; SUGGESTION (S) Bearish; RESULT (R Black candle (BC)).

On 13/9/11,OBSERVATION (O) base line crossed down conversion below cloud; SUGGESTION (S) Bearish with SELL; RESULT (R Black candle (BC)) followed by BC .

On 14/9/11,OBSERVATION (O) Kumo break down but Lagging UP ; SUGGESTION (S) Bearish; RESULT (R White candle (WC)) followed by WC .


On 11/10/11,OBSERVATION (O) Conversion cross over Lagging; SUGGESTION (S) Bullish with BUY; RESULT (R) BC followed by WC & Trend UP .

On 14/10/11,OBSERVATION (O) Conversion cross over Base;SUGGESTION (S) Bullish with BUY; RESULT (R) BC followed by WC .

On 16/11/11,OBSERVATION (O) Conversion cross down Base;SUGGESTION (S) Bearish with SELL; RESULT (R Black candle (BC)) followed by Down trend .

PROJECTION for current week (WEF 28-11-11), depending current NIFTY being above or below CLOUD, levels for support or resistance shall be 4979 & 5078, 4978 & 5078, 5001 & 5001, 4958 & 5013, and 4964 & 5039.

Monday's 'white candle' was restrcted by conversion line; lagging line was around same level (4850) as day's top. Followd by tuesday's Black candle. On wednesday, there is a KUMO break point with suggestion to Trade with break out . Let us see if it worthy of following.

Order out of CHAOS : FIBONACCI number & NIFTY

Nifty index is based on 50 scrips with innumeral trades resulting in real CHAOS : Out of such CHAOS, I discovered that during the period of 02/03/2008 and 16/09/2011, lowest Index was 2539.45 & highest Index was 6338.5. And, most interesting thing is that there is GAP OF 610 , a FIBONACCI number, days in-between 6th March 2008 & 5th November 2010.

Fibonacci	Date	Open	High	Low	Close
1	6-Mar-09	2576.75	2628.10	2539.45	2620.15
2	7-Mar-09	0	0	0	0
3	8-Mar-09	0	0	0	0
5	10-Mar-09	0	0	0	0
8	13-Mar-09	2616.60	2726.15	2616.60	2719.25
13	18-Mar-09	2757.65	2836.05	2752.25	2794.70
21	26-Mar-09	2982.25	3103.35	2982.25	3082.25
34	8-Apr-09	3255.35	3357.05	3149.25	3342.95
55	29-Apr-09	3371.65	3486.40	3366.70	3473.95
89	2-Jun-09	4530.45	4586.40	4451.30	4525.25
144	27-Jul-09	4568.65	4596.75	4528.50	4572.30
233	24-Oct-09	0	0	0	0
377	17-Mar-10	5198.45	5260.50	5177.15	5231.90
610	5-Nov-10	6321.85	6338.50	6303.10	6312.45
987	17-Nov-11	0	0	0	0

http://ademocraticcorporateworld.blogspot.com/2011/09/nse-nifty-index-fibonacci-numbers-order.html
has listed full data of the NIFTY Index from 02/03/2008.

Nifty : An "Ichimoku" view

Conversion line(9d) , also known as the Tenkan Sen or the Turning or , is a moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading days. It is primarily used to measure short-term momentum and is interpreted in the same manner as a short-term moving average.
A steeply angled Tenkan Sen indicates a sharp recent price change or strong momentum, while a flatter Tenkan Sen indicates low or no momentum. The price breaching the Tenkan Sen may give an early indication of a trend change. It had crossed, in the chart, over the base line on 18/10/11 , rose & topped on 09/11/11 and drop down crossing below the base line on 17/11/11.

Base line(26d) , also known as the Kijun Sen or the Standard , is a moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading days. It is primarily used to measure momentum, however because of its longer time period it is a more reliable indicator of trend. A flatter Kijun Sen indicates a range bound price, while an inclined line indicates a trend, with the angle of the line showing the momentum of the trend.

Lagging line (26d) , also known as the Chikou Span, is the closing price plotted 26 trading days behind, i.e. into the past, providing an at-a-glance view of how the price compares to that 26 days ago. It is hardly visible in lower left side.
The trend is deemed to be upward when the Chikou Span is above the closing prices and downward when it is below them. The Chikou Span is also considered of use for confirmation of trends, momentum, and support and resistance levels highlighted by the other Ichimoku elements.

Cloud , also known as the Kumo , is the area between the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B, and is at the center of the Ichimoku system. It should be noted that several of the chart elements use the average of the highest high and lowest low over a period, and therefore represent the mid-point of the range of prices over that period. This is considered to provide a better visualisation of trend, momentum, and support and resistance levels than just using an average of closing prices. It should be stressed that no chart element should be considered in isolation; the chart should be viewed as a whole with all elements taken into account, and intepretations should be regarded as probabilistic, rather than predictive.

Senkou Span A, also known as the 1st leading line, is a moving average of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and is plotted 26 trading days ahead, i.e. into the future.
Senkou Span B, also known as the 2nd leading line, is a moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 52 trading days is plotted 26 trading days ahead, i.e. into the future. As such it is the longest term representation of equilibrium in the Ichimoku system.

It is primarily used in combination with the Senkou Span A to form the Kumo (cloud), to indicate probable future support and resistance levels. As price tends to respect prior support and resistance levels, time-shifting this line forward gives a visual representation of how the price on a date relates to support and resistance from 52 trading days prior.

The trend is deemed to be bearish when the Senkou Span A is below the Senkou Span B and bullish when it is above. As price tends to respect prior support and resistance levels, time-shifting this line forward gives a visual representation of how the price on a date relates to support and resistance from 26 trading days prior.

The Kumo is primarily used to indicate probable future support and resistance levels, with the top of the Kumo indicating the first level of support and the bottom the second level when the price is above the Kumo. Conversely, the bottom of the Kumo indicates the first level of resistance and the top the second level when the price is below the Kumo.

A price above the Kumo indicates a bullish trend and a price below indicates a bearish one, while price within the Kumo indicates a potentially trend-less or range-bound situation.
The thickness of the Kumo shows the level of historical volatility, as well as the strength of support or resistance. A thicker Kumo shows a greater the level of historical volatility and support or resistance, and vice-versa.

Cloud beyond the span starting from 25/11/11 is the probabilistic view of future Nifty.

NSE NIFTY : 4700 Level (EOD)

From a low 4728 (as on 04/10/11) NIFTY rose to 5399 (as on 28/10/11) (Within 1st parallel lines) & then FALLS to a recent low around 4640 (within 2nd parallel lines).
Were the candles (enclosed in 'oval') fore-warn the fall ?
Finally, stayed above 4700 level as SW4 in progress (as shown by Arrow)

SW1, SW2 & SW 3 marked as in http://ewcountsatniftyparadox.blogspot.com/2011/11/nifty-eod-24112011.html

NIFTY : 4700 Level

Over the last 30 months, NSE Nifty was above 4700 levels, with a high of 6335 topped on 08/11/2010. During subsequent correction, it got supports around "4700" a number of times, before breaching it to 4640.95 (being low of 23/11/2011) but closing at 4706. Nifty had closed at 4563 on 03/11/2009 below this level ONCE only

Larsen & Toubro : Crashing to 555 ?

Updated chart as on 23/11/2011









Quoting: "Head and shoulder in Larsen Toubro, target wave C to 555 number of devil! " from
http://www.elliotwaveindia.com/2011/11/elliot-wave-india-monthly-forecast-oct.html
Suggested SL = 1266

Fibonacci number & NSE NIFTY

On a scrutiny of NSE Nifty since 2nd March 2008, I observed the following:
(Having assigned '1' to date 27-Oct-08 & subsequent numbers since then)

Fibonacci Date Wave Count High Low Point _Diff

1 27-Oct-08 Wv(0) 2585.30 2252.75
2 28-Oct-08 2695.95 2526.20
3 29-Oct-08 2781.25 2631.90
5 31-Oct-08 2921.35 2696.30
8 3-Nov-08 3062.05 2885.40
10 5-Nov-08 Wv(1) 3240.55 2971.00 987.80
13 8-Nov-08 0 0
21 16-Nov-08 0 0
34 29-Nov-08 0 0
55 20-Dec-08 0 0
89 23-Jan-09 2765.55 2661.65
131 6-Mar-09 Wv(2) 2628.10 2539.45 701.10
144 19-Mar-09 2822.25 2771.35
228 11-Jun-09 Wv(3) 4679.55 4586.15 2140.10
233 16-Jun-09 4537.95 4405.95
260 13-Jul-09 Wv(4) 4003.40 3918.75 760.80
359 20-Oct-09 Wv(5) 5181.95 5102.65 1263.20
373 3-Nov-09 Wv(a) 4729.85 4538.50 643.45
377 7-Nov-09 0 0
409 9-Dec-09 Wv(b) 5147.65 5090.60 609.15
421 21-Dec-09 Wv(c) 4997.85 943.95 203.70
533 12-Apr-10 Wv(d) 5382.15 5324.90 438.20
576 25-May-10 Wv(e) 4946.60 4786.45 595.70
610 28-Jun-10 5339.45 5270.75
638 26-Jul-10 i 5466.25 5409.20 679.80
674 31-Aug-10 ii 5413.90 5348.90 117.35
711 7-Oct-10 iii 6199.45 6107.50 850.55
733 29-Oct-10 iv 6032.65 5937.10 262.35
740 5-Nov-10 v 6338.50 6303.10 401.40
775 10-Dec-10 a 5865.5 5721.15 617.35
800 4-Jan-11 b 6181.05 6124.4 459.90
838 11-Feb-11 c 5319.45 5177.7 1003.35
892 6-Apr-11 x 5944.45 5868.8 766.75
941 25-May-11 a 5389.1 5328.7 615.75
855 8-Jul-11 b 5740.40 5651.05 411.70
987 10-Jul-11 0 0
1065 26-Sep-11 c 4879.80 4758.85 981.55
1068 29-Sep-11 5034.25 4906.00 275.40
1074 5-Oct-11 4827.80 4741.00 293.25
1097 28-Oct-11 5399.70 5322.80 658.70
1117 17-Nov-11 5036.80 4919.45 480.25

Significant points being made are, first, 2252.75 is a LOW made on 27th October 2008 ,and on 5th November 2010 a HIGH of 6338.5 was made and other data are just representative of the CHAOS in the security market.






ABOVE ARE BASED ON FACTS. What follows EMPIRICALLY deductions:

A. There had been a rise of 4086 points based on high-low during this period of 739 , and 3832 based on average of respective open, high, low & close. High of 6338 is 2.81 times the low of 2253..

B. RETRACEMENTS to the extent of 38.2 % of the "4086" or '3832' result in NIFTY being in the range of 4778 to 4874 ; recent lows of 4758, 4741 or 4919 are AROUND these range

C. On 1196th day (on retracement of 61.8% period wise - a Fibonacci NEXT number) , i.e., 4-Feb-12 , the Nifty may be around 4400/4500 (corresponding to 50 % Retracement) in the worst scenerio.


Finally, NSE Nifty had consolidated around 4700 Lebels (marked in 'oval' in the weekly chart) during the past years

National Peroxide : A review

Equity Share Capital 5.75 as on 31/03/2011 (ALL in crores except EPS)

Reserves 123.01
Reported Net Profit 57.92 Total Value Addition 49.34
Historically strong fundamentals.However, current year performance is adverse due to planned shut down & enhancement of capacity going on & higher production/sales are expected in the 3rd quater ending 31st December 2011 and onward
Net Profit 2.16 (2 qtrs ending 30-09-11) (PY 6months 10.50)
Earnings Per Share 3.76 (2 qtrs ending 30-09-11) (PY 6months 18.27)
Foreign Promoters (Solvay at cie S.A. Technology) holds 14,42,500 shares (25.10%)
Indian Promoter Group (Wadia- Bombay Dyeings) holds 2,528,765 shares and
Public holding (Floating) is just 16,18,985 shares

Once normalcy reverts, its fortune is expected to be restored. Having consolidated around 270 during early 2010, it rose to a high of 675 and have since retraced 61.8% to presently 421 or so.

Larsen Toubro : Elliott wave forecast

"Head and shoulder" formation in Larsen Toubro chart leads to a target for wave C to 555 (with a stop loss =1462) according to EWI http://www.elliotwaveindia.com/2011/11/elliot-wave-india-monthly-forecast-oct.html