NIFTY & Fibonacci Arcs

A fibonacci arcs starting at point 5629 & extended up 4531 was imposed in the Nifty charts since July 2011. Notice that point 1 of the wolfe wave is situated on arcs 38.2%. Point 3 appears to be on imaginary arcs 50%. Line projected from point 4531 has lent supports lately.Target level for the ww bull is situated at/near the high of July 2011

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Gann Square based on Nifty =5053
Supports 5184 5148.06 5112.25 5076.56
Resistances 5220.06 5256.25 5292.56 5329

NSE Nifty : Gann Square with 4531

To generate the GANN square, one needs a reference point. We take this to be  4531 (a recent low) for Nifty Index as on 20th December  2011 and proceed as follows:-

Step 1: Take SQRT(Input) = SQRT(4531) = 67.3127                 

Step 2: Now we get N= Integer {SQRT(Input) - 1} = 66 & square of N =4356  being placed in center of (21X21) grid.

Step 3: Next increase the N by 0.125 (45 degrees) ( 1/8th of 360 degree) & get square of it . Place this in left block adjacent to center block where u placed 4356.

Step 4: Increase the value of N further by 0.125 & square it , and keep repeating ; Place the squared up value one after another in a spiral fashion clockwise , filling up block until one level of square is completed. These process of generating square of (N plus n*.0125), where n= integers 1 to n may be continued as required.

Let us find out how these fits with the following charts. Horizontal lines commensurate with these numbers were placed for convenience.

Resistances were 5220, 5238,  5256, 5274 etc

Supports were 5202, 5194, 5166, 5148 etc

 

Nifty : Wolfe wave - An Analysis post event

Post event an analysis of a wolfe wave bull set up is being made to find out any charastratic for future guidance. Specially, it is observed that Nifty started rising from Point 5 (marked in oval) but retraced to a lower level being called 5 Final from where it rose steadily along a line to the target 6 .

I have tabulated some Data in the following table:

Date	R_No	Open	High	Low	Close	Candel	Fib_No Relation
4-Oct-11	1	4823.50	4869.75	4728.30	4772.15	B	1
28-Oct-11	25	5341.90	5399.70	5322.80	5360.70	W	21
23-Nov-11	51	4779.50	4779.50	4640.90	4706.45	B	55
7-Dec-11	65	5050.10	5099.25	5032.25	5062.60	W
20-Dec-11	78	4635.80	4637.25	4531.15	4544.20	B
2-Jan-12	91	4640.20	4645.95	4588.05	4636.75	B	89
22-Feb-12	142	5609.75	5629.95	5491.35	5505.35	B	144

I have assigned a number "1" to the date corresponding to Point 1 of wolfe wave. Point 2 was 25th day and nearest to Fibonacci number 21. Point 3 was 51st  day and nearest to Fibonacci number 55. Point 4 was 65th day without any relationship as before. Point 5 initial was 78th day and Point 5 final was 91st day and nearest to Fibonacci number 89. Is it just coincidence that Nifty rose sharply from this 5F rather than 5I ? And, finally , Nifty reached the target on 142nd day & nearest to Fibonacci number 144.

Based on average of Open, High, Low & close, Point 1 -> Point 2 is 557.85 and Point 5F -> Point 6 is 931.36 so we may say rise was 1.67 times former.  In case of contrasting triangle, Elliot wave requirement is a minimum of  1.75 incidently .

Nifty : a wolfe wave set up

1. Number 2 wave is a top.

2. Number 3 wave is the bottom of a first decline.

3. Number 1 wave is the bottom prior to wave 2 (top). Point 3 must be lower than point 1.

4. Number 4 wave is the top of wave 3. The wave 4 point should be higher than the wave 1 bottom.


Chart is conforming with the standard wolfe wave requirement.

Today's candle is poised to be the entry point for a ride to the epa line (1 to 4).  SL is 5126
(recent low - 10)

ChartNexus chart is better in drawing; first oval is point 3 & second oval is expected point 5

for a bull set up ; SL 5080

NIFTY : Thrusting Up or Down ?

My first observation of the rise of Nifty was " Notice in the 5 hourly NIFTY future chart the 1st triangle starting 01/02/12 & ending on 07/03/12 was of 35 days, 2nd ending on 29/03 was of 22 days & 3rd ending on almost 11/04 was of 13 days with the Yellow base line. Time-wise there is co-relation with fibonacci numbers 34, 21 & 13 ! All made lower High & but found support along the yellow (~ 5175) line (April 12 at 9:17am)". Situation stands updated in the daily chart.

However, in to-day's 1 minute chart, the Nifty , after 'Yo-Yoing' till 2 PM, seems to have conceded the battle before over-welming distributions and retreated to low of the day creating a black candle. NIFTY, having failed to thrust UP, is heading for a DOWN move to around 5000 in a few days IMHO.

Nifty : Wealth Creaters

Company Name	13/04/12	Retracement level	Twelve M Trailing  EPS	Book value
	Price	Fibo_61.8 Yearly			P/E Ratio	RONW
Wealth Creater
Tata Steel	449.80	448.892	93.99	364.35	4.79	25.80
Sesa Goa	186.20	217.142	34.46	147.40	5.40	23.38
Sterlite Ind	106.85	125.728	16.30	123.28	6.56	13.22
PNB	902.50	937.124	137.43	634.13	6.57	21.67
Cairn India	341.80	307.064	43.04	210.96	7.94	20.40
Grasim	2640.35	2343.372	296.31	1585.21	8.91	18.69
Tata Motors	289.30	199.12	31.26	59.94	9.25	52.15
BHEL	258.50	309.71	26.38	82.35	9.80	32.03
ONGC	260.80	274.088	26.03	134.80	10.02	19.31
GAIL	356.25	385.884	31.16	167.24	11.43	18.63
Reliance	751.55	823.756	64.69	451.97	11.62	14.31
Axis Bank	1162.15	1056.748	96.45	459.80	12.05	20.98
Jindal Steel	497.55	536.848	40.57	150.93	12.26	26.88
SBI	2212.30	2101.598	172.07	968.44	12.86	17.77
Bajaj Auto	1639.45	1482.706	125.52	166.13	13.06	75.56
IDFC	132.45	117.122	9.96	74.35	13.30	13.40
NTPC	166.75	167.28	11.41	83.01	14.61	13.75
Coal India	338.90	342.896	22.74	52.75	14.90	43.11
Mah and Mah	691.85	716.32	42.52	231.91	16.27	18.33
ICICI Bank	865.00	831.236	52.19	477.82	16.57	10.92
Power Grid Corp	112.00	102.022	6.42	46.52	17.45	13.80
Infosys	2402.55	2596.334	136.15	452.37	17.65	30.10
Hero Motocorp	2056.55	1832.85	113.99	148.03	18.04	77.00
ACC	1258.75	1110.528	69.33	383.08	18.16	18.10
Larsen	1282.30	1312.418	68.94	401.81	18.60	17.16
Wipro	419.30	372.502	22.23	91.46	18.86	24.31
Ambuja Cements	161.90	143.684	8.00	57.36	20.24	13.95
TCS	1068.35	1046.778	51.82	125.20	20.62	41.39
HCL Tech	478.95	424.176	23.23	110.52	20.62	21.02
Dr Reddys Labs	1735.00	1536.126	83.63	237.78	20.75	35.17
Maruti Suzuki	1322.75	1102.078	57.29	495.25	23.09	11.57
Kotak Mahindra	581.50	472.524	24.34	91.76	23.89	26.53
Cipla	314.05	306.234	13.04	82.91	24.08	15.73
HDFC Bank	529.35	453.48	20.57	108.14	25.73	19.02
Bharti Airtel	323.50	368.278	12.25	117.70	26.41	10.41
Sun Pharma	585.40	491.142	21.34	91.57	27.43	23.30
ITC	236.25	202.066	7.46	20.92	31.67	35.66
HUL	425.15	327.884	11.91	12.23	35.70	97.38
Siemens	791.05	750.386	20.02	112.11	39.51	17.86

Nifty Wealth Destroyers

In course of analyzing Nifty, its component’s SMA (Simple moving average), trailing 12 months EPS & book value, I found 11 Companies are wealth destroyer in the sense that they earn less than 10% yearly basis which is being available from putting one’s wealth with a Bank.   Surprisingly but for Reliance Comm, Hindalco & Reliance Infrastructure, all are quoting over their book value.

Bluest of blue chips & darling of FII HDFC Ltd. Is among these wealth destroyer ; P/E ratio being 25+ & Price: book value being 2+

Price	Company Name	12 TEPS	Book value	P/E Ratio	RONW
677.85	BPCL	-47.47	424.60	Negative	Negative
499.80	Ranbaxy Labs	-68.72	132.48	Negative	Negative
103.20	Tata Power	0.36	59.11	286.67	0.61
84.40	Reliance Comm	3.70	196.22	22.81	1.89
114.85	Reliance Power	2.94	60.01	39.06	4.90
197.90	DLF	7.91	154.89	25.02	5.11
77.35	Jaiprakash Asso	3.48	49.74	22.23	7.00
124.85	Hindalco	12.03	151.56	10.38	7.94
546.00	Reliance Infra	69.81	877.07	7.82	7.96
679.00	HDFC	26.66	318.72	25.47	8.36
93.55	SAIL	8.47	91.04	11.04	9.30