Nifty : History of Macd in #TF5DaysCycle

Further to http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2017/11/nifty-timeframe-5dayscycle-1995-2017.html 

Based on P(oint)O(f)F(irst)T(ouch)  2253, 5519 & 6826, IMO support from them should be seen around 7500,8000 & 9000, respectively. Before that EMA_5, EMA_21 & EMA_34 should provide supports presently around 10318, 10,061 & 9505,respectively .On Friday last, Nifty closed at 10321.75 with OHL being 10304.35, 10344.95 & 10254.10.

I would like to discuss the cross over of Macd ,aka Elliot Wave Oscillator,  #Z(ero)L(ine) over last 659 candles (since 12 Aug 2004) ; out of these 569 (i.e., 86+% of cases) were positive (EMA_5 greater than EMA_34)  and just 90 were otherwise (i.e., below ZL). A graphical representation follows:

With  reference to table below, please note that :

a) Nifty moves up in 92 candles with gain of 2336 points over 471 days since the prior low while in the grip of Bears with Macd remaining below the zero line;

b) Nifty corrected over 50% in just 24 days endorsing the

 Fact that Bulls take long time to gains which is always eroded in a shorter time.

Continuation sheet of the Table :

Last & current Bullish phase is now with 82 candles completed ,present phase had given a peak of 10,490 & fingers crossed till a Higher High  & eventual ZL dip show up.

Big question is how many more days before Bears take over. No idea  . Earlier we had seen 2 cases of 92 candles while Nifty were at 6357 &, 6338, respectively  & 1 case of 99 candles while Nifty were at  9119 . 

Nifty : TimeFrame 5DaysCycle - 1995-2017

Nse Nifty Index is available in OHLC basis since 06 November 1995 ; here is a 5DaysCycle chart wherein Open from a range of 5 Days' DATA, High & Low of that range & finally Close were selected from Data sourced from NSE site and a Chart was created with excel in usual course :

Exponential Moving Average over 5 & 34 periods were derived  & finally MACD (5,34,5) were derived. Let me list a few key observations :

Over a 5DaysCycle Nifty is having lots of up & down (Including side wise moves) over 1875 Minutes in consecutive five days   but represented in a single Candle.

Out of 1095 candles, Macd were found to be positive (i.e., EMA_5 > EMA_34 so that immediate (current) trend were robust than longer-time trend)  in about 77% period & rest in negative. Following two tables list such trend :

Notice consecutive periods of positive duration in range of 1 to 99 but mostly double digit numbers showing bullishness.

In contrast negative duration in range of 1 to 33 but mostly single digit numbers showing bearishness.

Nifty : Time Frame 34 DaysCycle

On 274^th day of O(pen)H(igh)L(ow)C(lose) Data availability (4^th December 1996) , #Nifty Index showed the life time LOW of 775.43 & on 5471th day (17-Oct-2017) the A(ll)T(ime)H(igh) of 10251.85  was seen after (5471 – 274 =)  5197 days ; ATF as such is 34.65 days. I presume my 34 DaysCycle chart is OK  in  the present  circumstance. Let us have a look for Period end 23/10/2017 :-

 

Next is a 150 candle Chart to comply with Macd (5,34,5) better representation :-

 

A table with select values of Nifty & Macd  may be referred for both the above charts.

Significantly, low to high were in the range of 521 to 5507 over the long duration & subsequent correction (High to low) were in the range of 44 to 95%. EMA_5 were more than EMA_34 in about 79% time (118 candle in positive territory while 32 in negative in the last 150 candle count).

But for a short period of 2 candles (with dip of #ZeroLine during 4531), Macd were in positive territory during last 41 candle nearly 6 years. Looking at EMA's chart there is a little chance of dip even though divergence shown : -

 

Step Sum Analysis : Nifty as at March 2017

With out explanation as http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2016/09/analysis-of-nifty-with-step-sum.html  amply cover, let me put up a Nifty Step Sum chart for 5 years period ended on 31^st March 2017 :

 

Next chart is end of month picture over five years.

 

Nifty index ,since 03/11/1995, is behaving like a irregular pendulum with sometime "Step Up" or "Step Down" and picture as on 31st March 2017 being displayed below :

 

In short, Nifty Index had 2827 number of "Step Up" , 7 number of  "No change" and 2502 number of "Step Down" giving the value of Step Sum of 325. Some significant Step Sum numbers are Tabulated below :

 

#1 : Nifty all time low ATL 775.43 had a Step Sum value of minus 35 based on 119 “Step Up” & 154 “Step Down”.

#2 : On 30/10/2002 step sum showed a 0 (Zero value) & remained positive since then.

#3 : With ATH in Nifty at 9119, step sum showed a high of 314 based on  2566 “Step Up” & 2252 “Step Down”, subsequently after a peak of 315 & low of 287 and  it came out of the range to show a high of 325 on 30^th March 15, 2017.

Count_15 signifies number of "Step Up" & "Step Sum" in 15 days. Following two charts depict Step Sum with Count_15 for full data :

 

Next, filtering out almost 95% of data with Count_15 < (+/-)7 ;   that just four cases of  13  implying 14 "Step up" with 1 "step down" and one case of (-) 13 implying 14 "Step down" with 1 "step up" were seen for Nifty.

 

 Analysis of "count_15" over year 1995-2017 along with Yearly Step Sum  are covered in Table :

 

It is observed that incremental step sum is a function of netting of Positive & Negative value of Count_15 during the year ; as for example in Year 2003 huge rise of 56 in Step Sum was helped Count_15 been 3 of Cnt 13, 15 of Cnt 11, 30 of Cnt 9, 23 of Cnt 7, 30 of Cnt 5, 7 of Cnt 3 & negative 17 of Cnt 1  .

 Example of dragging down in Count_15 is shown in next Table :

Nifty BiMonthly : As on February 2017

Further to my earlier blog :

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2016/06/nifty-bi-monthly-chart-intermediate.html ,  it is time to share the current status on the same time frame :  that a "Bi-month" is of average 42 days  & being consisting calendar months of various duration. As such short term EMA_5 covers 10 months & long term EMA_34 covers
68 months = 5 years 8 months.

Latest chart :

 

IMO B is either in progress or may have topped out and in that case C is in progress.

 

Since 2003 Nifty is prevailing over long term EMA_34 most of the time but for a significant (marked box) below it for a few months post dip of 2253 & also dip of 4531. But for these Nifty is in bull grip for over 14 years now.

Let us have a shorter term review of Nifty in TimeFrame of 5DaysCycle & 8DaysCycle ;

 

Here 34EMA is of 170 days  , appr 4 BiMonthly candle

 

Here 34EMA is of 272 days  , appr 7 BiMonthly candle .

And a longer time 34DaysCycle chart :

 

Here 34EMA is of 1156 days  , appr 27.5 BiMonthly candle .

Nifty : A fresh look to Time Frame 34DaysCycle

Nifty index over  20 years period is best covered in a Chart of symmetric 34 days with proper MACD  (5,34,5) aka Elliot Wave Oscillator ; in this instant , it is from 11/10/1996 to 09/02/2017. Chart speaks for itself :

Out of 150 candles, Bebo aka Macd (5,34) were in positive territory 113 times & just 37 times in negative. Most interesting facts are summarized in the following Table : observe Nifty starting with  ATL low (775) corresponding to Bebo value of { - 70 } swing up & down to ATH high (9119) with extreme Bebo value of 1916. 

According to : http://www.feedroll.com/technical-analysis-oscillators-indicators/700-elliott-wave-oscillator-ewo/#disqus_thread  the highest values of the EWO are during the Third Wave ; it looks to me 9119 qualified as such. Subsequent swing low did not yield a Zero Line cross down but gave a low value of 342 as such a fall of 1574 from previous value. In the attached TF 5DaysCycle chart, a zero line cross down is visible. Also, similar a zero line cross down is visible in TF 8DaysCycle, 13DaysCycle & 21DaysCycle (Single candle only)

Further  to : http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2016/09/analysis-of-nifty-with-step-sum.html  I am sharing a table for the full range of Index under studies: 

#1 : Nifty all time low ATL 775.43 had a Step Sum value of minus 35 based on 119 “Step Up” & 154 “Step Down”.

#2 : On 30/10/2002 step sum showed a 0 (Zero value) & remained positive since then.

#3 : With ATH in Nifty at 9119, step sum showed a high of 313 based on  2565 “Step Up” & 2252 “Step Down”, subsequently after a peak of 314 & low of 286 and  it came out of the range to show a high of 320 on 13^th February 15, 2017.