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Friday, November 18, 2011

Fibonacci number & NSE NIFTY

On a scrutiny of NSE Nifty since 2nd March 2008, I observed the following:
(Having assigned '1' to date 27-Oct-08 & subsequent numbers since then)

Fibonacci Date Wave Count High Low Point _Diff

1 27-Oct-08 Wv(0) 2585.30 2252.75
2 28-Oct-08 2695.95 2526.20
3 29-Oct-08 2781.25 2631.90
5 31-Oct-08 2921.35 2696.30
8 3-Nov-08 3062.05 2885.40
10 5-Nov-08 Wv(1) 3240.55 2971.00 987.80
13 8-Nov-08 0 0
21 16-Nov-08 0 0
34 29-Nov-08 0 0
55 20-Dec-08 0 0
89 23-Jan-09 2765.55 2661.65
131 6-Mar-09 Wv(2) 2628.10 2539.45 701.10
144 19-Mar-09 2822.25 2771.35
228 11-Jun-09 Wv(3) 4679.55 4586.15 2140.10
233 16-Jun-09 4537.95 4405.95
260 13-Jul-09 Wv(4) 4003.40 3918.75 760.80
359 20-Oct-09 Wv(5) 5181.95 5102.65 1263.20
373 3-Nov-09 Wv(a) 4729.85 4538.50 643.45
377 7-Nov-09 0 0
409 9-Dec-09 Wv(b) 5147.65 5090.60 609.15
421 21-Dec-09 Wv(c) 4997.85 943.95 203.70
533 12-Apr-10 Wv(d) 5382.15 5324.90 438.20
576 25-May-10 Wv(e) 4946.60 4786.45 595.70
610 28-Jun-10 5339.45 5270.75
638 26-Jul-10 i 5466.25 5409.20 679.80
674 31-Aug-10 ii 5413.90 5348.90 117.35
711 7-Oct-10 iii 6199.45 6107.50 850.55
733 29-Oct-10 iv 6032.65 5937.10 262.35
740 5-Nov-10 v 6338.50 6303.10 401.40
775 10-Dec-10 a 5865.5 5721.15 617.35
800 4-Jan-11 b 6181.05 6124.4 459.90
838 11-Feb-11 c 5319.45 5177.7 1003.35
892 6-Apr-11 x 5944.45 5868.8 766.75
941 25-May-11 a 5389.1 5328.7 615.75
855 8-Jul-11 b 5740.40 5651.05 411.70
987 10-Jul-11 0 0
1065 26-Sep-11 c 4879.80 4758.85 981.55
1068 29-Sep-11 5034.25 4906.00 275.40
1074 5-Oct-11 4827.80 4741.00 293.25
1097 28-Oct-11 5399.70 5322.80 658.70
1117 17-Nov-11 5036.80 4919.45 480.25

Significant points being made are, first, 2252.75 is a LOW made on 27th October 2008 ,and on 5th November 2010 a HIGH of 6338.5 was made and other data are just representative of the CHAOS in the security market.






ABOVE ARE BASED ON FACTS. What follows EMPIRICALLY deductions:

A. There had been a rise of 4086 points based on high-low during this period of 739 , and 3832 based on average of respective open, high, low & close. High of 6338 is 2.81 times the low of 2253..

B. RETRACEMENTS to the extent of 38.2 % of the "4086" or '3832' result in NIFTY being in the range of 4778 to 4874 ; recent lows of 4758, 4741 or 4919 are AROUND these range

C. On 1196th day (on retracement of 61.8% period wise - a Fibonacci NEXT number) , i.e., 4-Feb-12 , the Nifty may be around 4400/4500 (corresponding to 50 % Retracement) in the worst scenerio.


Finally, NSE Nifty had consolidated around 4700 Lebels (marked in 'oval' in the weekly chart) during the past years

Monday, November 14, 2011

National Peroxide : A review






















Equity Share Capital 5.75 as on 31/03/2011 (ALL in crores except EPS)

Reserves 123.01
Reported Net Profit 57.92 Total Value Addition 49.34
Historically strong fundamentals.However, current year performance is adverse due to planned shut down & enhancement of capacity going on & higher production/sales are expected in the 3rd quater ending 31st December 2011 and onward
Net Profit 2.16 (2 qtrs ending 30-09-11) (PY 6months 10.50)
Earnings Per Share 3.76 (2 qtrs ending 30-09-11) (PY 6months 18.27)
Foreign Promoters (Solvay at cie S.A. Technology) holds 14,42,500 shares (25.10%)
Indian Promoter Group (Wadia- Bombay Dyeings) holds 2,528,765 shares and
Public holding (Floating) is just 16,18,985 shares


Once normalcy reverts, its fortune is expected to be restored. Having consolidated around 270 during early 2010, it rose to a high of 675 and have since retraced 61.8% to presently 421 or so.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Larsen Toubro : Elliott wave forecast








"Head and shoulder" formation in Larsen Toubro chart leads to a target for wave C to 555 (with a stop loss =1462) according to EWI http://www.elliotwaveindia.com/2011/11/elliot-wave-india-monthly-forecast-oct.html

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Nifty : A view over three year



Nifty made a low at 2253 on 27/10/2008 and then made a high at 6338 on 05/11/2010.

In course of corrections, it got support around 4700 level (marked line was not violated twice recently) which looks likely to hold for the time being. In last stage, a 100o points drop required 61 days and recovered 600 points in just 16 days.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Maharaja Shree Umaid Mills











http://mmb.moneycontrol.com/stock-message-forum/maharajashreeumaidmills/comments/244012

With CRISIL target of Rs. 863 being a fair value, this L N Bangur's closely held cash rich Company is available rather cheap now. Long term basis it is worth accumulating in the price range of 365-455 which looks like the support zone at present. Evidently, market is not very happy with the 'miserly' approach of the promotor.


PS: Updated chart show a Fibonacci projection favouring exit around 580 with a recommendation for re-entry at lower level.

State Bank of Travancore















SBT is the most profitable among listed subsidiaries of the State Bank of India. In the three years chart,it rose from around 600 to all time high of 1080 & since then retraced to same lower level. With a right issue on card, I consider this to be "Cheap" among all banking shares. Further, it is a candidate for merger with SBI with likely re-rating once the "Ratio" surfaces or becomes a rumour.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Understanding "Glenn Neely: Mastering Elliott Wave"

Glenn Neely had written a massive book titled "Mastering Elliott Wave" .EXHAUSTIVELY HE HAD COVERED ALL SHORT OF SITUATIONS, with difference retracements like 38.2%, 61.8%, 1.618, 2.618 etc and created lots of rules/guidances for subsequent WAVE Movements................. hundreds of diagrams ….....hundreds of cases.......

His views are a bit ‘hatke’ in the sense that he is dealing with “Monowave” ; ‘ A monowave is the movement of a market starting from a change in price direction until the next change in price direction occurs , even if price action does slow down temporarily and then speeds up again , the entire advance or decline should be considered one “wave” (a monowave).

Each time one force overpowers another, even for the shortest period of time, a change in price direction occurs which starts a new wave.

Impulsions (trending & terminal patterns) occur in the direction of the trend and will be composed of 5 (Five) segments. The five segments in an Impulse are labeled as such : “1,2,3,4,5”.combined to complete a larger Elliott formation.

Corrections (non-trending patterns) occur against the trend and are usually composed of 3 (Three) segments, are given the first three or more of the following letters : “a,b,c,d,e,x”.

All Elliott patterns depend on combining like with like. Waves that are not “similar” can not be combined.

When comparing adjacent waves within an Impulsion pattern, similarities of time are more common than price; in Corrective patterns, similarities of price are more common than time.

Impulsive behavior in the market action must adhere to the following :

1. Five adjacent segments must be present which meet the structure series requirements of a Trending or Terminal pattern.
2. Three of these five segments must “thrust” in the same upward or downward directions.
3. Immediately after the first segment , a minor wave in the opposite direction take place; this second segment can never retrace all of the first.
4. The third segment must be longer than the second.
5. Immediately after the third segment, a minor move in the opposite direction of the third (but the same direction as the second) takes place, this fourth segment must never retrace all of the third.
6. The fifth segment will almost always be longer than the fourth, but only has to be 38.2% of the fourth segment (price wise). When the fifth segment is shorter than the fourth, the fifth segment is termed a “ failure”.
7. When the vertical price distances covered by the first, third , and fifth segments are measured and compared, the third does not have to be longest, but it can never be the shortest of the three segments.

If a single one of the above Rules is not adhered to , the market action must be, by default, corrective in nature otherwise wave group is incorrectly combined.


One wave should be noticeably longer in price than all other, the longest one should be at least 161.8% of the next longest wave (price-wise). The two unextended waves should tend toward equality in price and/or time or relate by a Fibonacci ratio (usually 61.8%) under either parameter or both.

Rule of alternation states that when adjacent or alternate waves of the same degree are compared, they should be distinctive and unique in as many ways as possible. Alternation must be present between waves 2 & 4 in at least one of the following ways:

A. Price (the distance covered in verticle units).
B. Time (the distance covered in horizontal units).
C. Severity (the percentage retracement of the preceding wave).
D. Intricacy (the number of subdivisions present in a pattern).
E. Construction (one patern may be flat, the other a Zigzag, etc.).

I am closing my note with these interesting extracts:

Believe it or not, most large Elliott patterns do not finish at the highest or lowest price on a chart. Often, with Elliott , points below the high or above the low are more important for specific calculations than actual high or low.

At the end of a major trend , the market begins to lose momentum. It is this loss of momentum which sometimes prevents the market from making a new high or low at the end of a pattern.
Loss of momentum generally manifests itself in one of four forms:

a. An Impulse pattern will contain a 5th- wave Failure
b. A Flat pattern will finish with a C-wave Failure
c. A complex or rare formation will end with a Contracting , Non-Limiting Triangle &
d. An impulsion will conclude with a Terminal pattern.

Three of the four situations (a, b & c) always create a situation where the highest or lowest price on the chart is not the end of the Elliott patern. The Terminal pattern, if its 5th wave subdivides, can also conclude below the highest high or above the lowest low if wave -5 exhibits a loss of momentum in one of the three circumstances as listed above.

Always be on the lookout for a secondary spike or trough following an important high or low.It may be warning that an Elliott pattern terminated after the top or bottom . Also, watch for a significance amount of consolidation near, but after, an important high or low. The consolidation may be Non-Limiting Triangle which terminates the trend after the high or low.