Nifty : Performance since High of 2008

Even though the NSE Nifty is far below the historical high of 2008 (6357), there is talk of Nifty surpassing the earlier high. 

Performances of individual scrips , in the Index, were mixed as shown the followings Charts. (Source: moneycontrol)

I shall be reviewing the over all performance of the Index as on 08/01/2008 & its constituents over the past five years.

Merger of SBI Subsidiaries in the SBI

Anticipation of the  merger of listed subsidiaries in the State Bank . as per 

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/sbi-plans-merger5-associate-banksnext-12-18-months_525518.html

resulted in a sharp rises in S B Bikaner & S B Travancore by around 5%  today. Above is a concise fundamental sheet of the listed subsidiaries & their Parent Bank. As compared to gigantic Capital of Rs. 671 crores of State Bank, its subsidiaries are capitalised at a merely Rs. 70 & 50 crores respectively. However, both the 75 % subdidiary have quite impressive fundamentals such RONW at 
15 .65 % & 13.24 % compared to Parent's 15% and these are quite consistent over the many years.

https://excel.office.live.com/x/ExcelView.aspx?FBsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdownload%2Ffile_preview.php%3Fid%3D152797311536116%26metadata&access_token=1835286898%3AAVJy0F0saO9hsTmh4K1tqNiqqkRb7Nv6FlkcWdTgf5M_5A&title=SBI_Subs_DS.xlsx  

I am expecting 30-40 shares SBI against 100 shares of SBBJ  & 45-55 shares SBI against 100 shares of SBT. However, these being GOI enterprises, the final valuations & ratio for merger are difficult to anticipate. One silver lining is that the RBI policy is consistent & should prove beneficially to the minority shareholders which includes the LIC besides the Government of Kerala (in case of SBT ).

Nifty-inversion-of-waves-over-3-years

Further to my observations in my earlier blog :

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/06/nifty-inversion-of-waves-over-2-years.html

I shall like to review the Nifty Chart over the last three years which is :

Image from the chart January 2010 to 05/08/11 was,as per attachment  

was inverted 180 degree( anti-clockwise) and  the  'Inverted Chart' is being shown along with Chart for the period of 05/08/2011 to year end in the following chart with prominent 'pattern similarity' marked A to H. 

Chart beyond H, in the inverted one,  is yet to play out & looks favoring the bears.

.

I went back by one year and similarly inverted that chart from January 2009 & resulted charted was labelled H & thereafter the boxed area is YET TO PLAY OUT. If the hypothesis comes TRUE, it has so far done PATTERN WISE, Nifty is due for a DIP in recent time & then scale NEW HIGH.

Let us cross our fingers to check if these hypothesis comes true or not.

Vardhman-acrylics-buy-back: Up date 19/12/2012

Further to my observations

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/11/vardhman-acrylics-buy-back-creating.html

Slowly and steadily the management has picked up all most half of the targeted  two crore shares. IMHO, even if the price is raised to Rs. 12.50 , they may not achieve the target. Progress so far is summarised

Qty range      No of Days       Total        Average (daily)

0-50 K	72 days	1312443	18228.38
50001-1 Lakh	31 days	2062068	66518.32
100001-2 Lakh	18 days	2659038	147724.3
200001-4 Lakh	14 days	3813852	272418
	Total	9847401

Buy Back is in Blue while other delivered received by others in Red.
Bye the way, book value of the Company for residual shareholders  is getting enhanced as the buy back rate is below exiting book value by over seven rupees.

Vardhman Acrylics: Buy back creating wealth

Contrary to my observations
http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.com/2012/06/vardhman-acrylics-buy-back-is-destined.html

Significantly,  2,67,86,566 shares (out of 7,40,67,987 shares delivered during 01/04/2010 & 12/06/2012) were traded in the price range of Rs. 12 or lower


Even then Company managed to cross 85 lakh shares in their open market buy back with out price reaching 12 rupee mark showing absolute lack of confidence in the Oswal management.

As on 30th September 2012, there is change in shareholders profile as summarised below:

20 Bodies Corporate disinvested 27,80,337 shares,

818 Individuals (with  9999 or less shares)  disinvested 13,42,407 shares 

69 Individuals (with  10000 or more shares)  disinvested 26,62,878 shares

6 NRIndividuals   disinvested 37,811 shares  

1 Trust invested  5,000 shares 

As on 2nd November 2012, a total of  85,20,231 shares were acquired well below 12 rupees mark & in the process created wealth (conservatively estimated at rs. 8.5 crores)  for residual shareholders (mainly Oswal holding 6,45,70,362 shares) (Percentage being increased from 59.49 to 64.57) as the cost of acquisition is below book value.

Chart Data Preparation For Bonus/Split

Stock exchange archive data without any adjustment following issue of either bonus share or splitting of face value. For such cases, it is required to make adjustment in the downloaded DATA. First, save data from the SE in an excel file calling it "SE_DATA" sheet. Secondly, copy appropriate columns such as OHLC & Volume in another sheet calling it "Chart" sheet. 

Adjustment factor which is such that parity before the ex-date is restored; in case of 2:1 bonus issue, historical prices before bonus issue (in BLUE high lighted area) are divided by 3. For these all cells in the last row (in sheet named "Chart(Historical)" before the ex-date) are to be revised (using "F2" option in Excel ) and then copy/paste over the data range. Data are to be updated in "SE_DATA" sheet only & last row in the Chart(Historical) sheet are to be copied & pasted in next row and final Chart is to be generated from these sheet.