Nifty : A study of past Four months

Notice in the 5 hourly NIFTY future chart the 1st triangle starting 01/02/12 & ending on 07/03/12 was of 35 days, 2nd ending on 29/03 was of 22 days & 3rd ending on almost 11/04 was of 13 days with the Red base line. Time-wise there is co-relation with fibonacci numbers 34, 21 & 13 ! All made lower High & but found support along the yellow (~ 5175) line.

In this Nifty chart, lower line is 4531 the recent low, next line (5080 is 50% retracement level from 5629) and top line around 5170 is giving support repeatedly to form three tringles .

Nifty with Short term Bollinger Bands

In the chart, had viewed it along with short term Bollinger Bands with 5 days & 8 days (SD 1.5 being the minimum acceptable) and moving average MA (13 days) ; 5,8 & 13 being Fibonacci numbers.
Bollinger Band 5 crossing BB 8 on 05-01-12 starting a steady rise of Nifty within upper BB5 & BB5 till 24-02-12 when there is reversing of BBs, i.e., BB8 crossing BB5 along with Nifty going down within BB8 & lower BB8. There were similar change over on 13-03-12 & 20-03-12 with similarities in NIFTY movement.

Situations of these Bollinger bands & MA on 02-04-12 are identical with that as on 05-01-12 ; is NIFTY set to go UP as in the earlier occasions ?

Nifty : Observations over Three years

A three years view of the NSE Nifty weekly chart with Fibonacci projections are shown. From a low of 2965 in  03 April 2009 , Nifty peaked at 6335 in 05 Nov 2010 commensurate with 61.8 projection. Clouded areas show the significant times the Nifty were hovering most of the past three years. Note the 50% retracement level 4651.           
Recent low of 4531 in 23 Dec 2011 is slightly over    the 4254 line (61.8 retracement level) ; it look like to be not re-visited soon.

Reliance Industries : Buying Opportunity ?

"Reliance has tested the 2 year resistance or fence where it escaped and has started to fall back."

Presently, it is getting support around lower Bollinger band. Is it time to start accumulation around 705-720 band? Reliance has an intrinsic value of around 685 and buoncy in crude oil augurs well . 

According to EWIndia blogger :"If this is in C wave as marked, we should be at 465 sooner or later!" http://www.elliotwaveindia.com/2011/11/reliance-bear-setup.html

Rules of Money for Present Times

# 1: Buy & hold at your own RISK

The days of buying a stock or fund and expecting to hold it for ever is over & hazardous to your wealth. Now, we are in a secular bear market. Does this mean you have to become a day trader?
No, but you should monitor your holdings and be prepared to sell losers and buy into big trends.


# 2: Diversification won't protect You

Almost no sector or asset class was immune from the carnage in bear phase. Warren Buffett had said "Diversification is protection against ignorance" but does not result in protection of your wealth.

# 3: Low P/E does not equal Value

Many adherents to fundamental analysis seeking stocks with below-average P/E multiples & price-to-book values, proved to be traps during the financial crisis (in USA etc) and keep 'languishing' post recovery.

# 4: Taxes are a Key investing Strategy

Taxes make a huge difference in what counts most after tax return on your investment. Take advantage of the low short-term gains & nil long-term gains and tax-loss harvesting as may be advised by your tax strategists.

# 5: Learn to Profit from Volatility

Volatility is not going away. Turn volatility into profits: use wild,seemingly irrational moves as buying or selling opportunities.

# 6: Income investing is not for Olds

Studies show that long-term, dividend-payers outperform non-dividend-payers &  jump in the dividend bandwagon

# 7: Invest to meet Goals, not to beat Indexes

There is a lot of sense in focusing on one's specific income and capital needs rather than beating an index.

If you like to sleep at night, forget about margin trading and keep a healthy portion of your holdings in either CASH the king or high-rated Liquid bond

# 8: Mine your Networks for Ideas

Use your Networks to reach stock ideas & research in forums like 'moneycontrol' message boards for your benefits.

# 9: Piggyback Smarter Investors

There is no shame in copying the moves of better investors or market gurus and keep up dated by checking moves of smart money players through disclosures in webworld, and

# 10: Know your Sell Rules before You Buy

It matters when you sell as such decide on the specific conditions under which you would sell rather than either selling in a panic or sitting on your losses too long.

NIFTY : What may be unfurling

I made this a "Fusion" chart : Ichimoku cloud graph suggesting break-up on friday, chikou span (LAGGING in Green) line crossing the price from the bottom which is a bullish signal,

In the right hand side chart , EWI has suggested for a down move (initially)

http://www.elliotwaveindia.com/2011/12/nifty-big-picture.html

even though stating "To me CORRECTIONS LOOKS FINISHED !"

Raghu's W1, W2 etc had been marked appropriately with his suggested W3 going up arrow-wise
http://ewcountsatniftyparadox.blogspot.com/2011/12/nifty-eod-5122011.html

Jonak's, however, suggesting a "shorting opportunity" based on observation of bollinger bands (in the instant chart middle brown line of Bollinger) has crossed friday's white candle, in partial endorsement's of EWI view

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/12/nifty-short-opportunity.html

What is in store for us shall be unfold rest of the week.

Nifty : Ichimoku - Back testing # 2

As Kumo depth or thickness is a function of price volatility, we shall be seeing LESS volatility in coming days. When the senkou span A and B switch places this indicates an OVERALL TREND CHANGE from this longer-term perspective.The "senkou span cross" is an actual trading strategy that utilizes this KUMO TWIST as both an entry as well as a continuation or confirmation signal. Such POINTS ARE IN MID-WEEK & around x'mas in the chart.

Expected: Based on cloud, Nifty is bearish on monday with resistance at 4979, 5078.For the next four days, level 4978 & 5078, 5001 & 5001, 4958 & 5013, and 4964 & 5039 are crucial ; depending on day's Nifty being below or above the cloud, it will be bearish or bullish.

Monday's 'white candle' was restrcted by conversion line; lagging line was around same level (4850) as day's top. Followd by tuesday's Black candle.

Wednesday's Resistance/Support point (5001) is well over current Nifty at 4770; yesterday's Base at 5061, conversion at 4836, lagging at 4805 - there was NO trace OF A BREAK-DOWN OR UP to comply with suggestion for "Kumo cross"; with base being flat at 5019, conversion drifting to 4777 & lagging going up to 4833.

Any late effect ? Thursaday's OUT OF NOWHERE gap-up openning at 5008 & top at 5032 during morning looked like confirmation of break UP of 'kumo' cloud ; however, it being from below cloud (as such weak),eventually gave up most gains resulting in a black candle below the cloud.

AM not chart savvy, please feel free to carry on this line & may consider
http://www.marketcalls.in/metatrader/free-nifty-futures-realtime-charts-in-metatrader-platform.html
for on-line support.