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Sunday, May 19, 2013

Nifty : Mirror inversion (2009-13)



A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon, per dictionary.


As my hypothesis is “after two GAPS Down one after another , waves are PENDULUM like reverting, so to say after inverting anti-clock wise by 180 degree.”



On 5th August 2011, there was Gap down of 127.45 in NIFTY and on the next working day the 8th August, there was a Gap down of 127.40 further. '5280' is the middle point of two candles in the chart.




OHLC value of the Nifty was used to determine the value of ‘Open - 5280’, ‘High-5280’, ‘Low-5280’ & ‘Close-5280’ , eg., 132.4, 154.5, 43.15 & 51.8 for 4-Aug-2011. Similarly for all prior days based on historical data (Sourced from NSE).

Accordingly, mirror projections for 5 Aug 11 are calculated as :
open =5280-51.8 (corresponding to CLOSE), high =5280-43.15 (corresponding to LOW), low=5280-154.5 (corresponding to HIGH) & close=5280-132.4 (corresponding to OPEN)
{Data pertaining 4 Aug 11}.
Calculations for SUBSEQUENT days were made SIMILARLY based on PRIOR days (eg., 8 Aug 11, 9 Aug 11 etc etc  3 Aug 11, 2 Aug 11 etc etc)

In the above image of Excel sheet , please notice that OHLC for Nifty from 5th August 2011, and the calculated 'Mirror projection' ; ratio of Actual to Projection are given under bluish shade. Chart, below, shows the total range :
And the Data are analysed as per the following parameters
A0.991.016013.51
B0.981.025712.84
C0.971.03327.21
D0.961.04398.78
E0.951.05337.43
X< 0.95> 1.059421.17
XX< 0.90> 1.1012929.05
444100
  
It is observed that out of 444 cases, mis-matches (X & XX) are more than good matches (A with a variation of 1% or less), B (<2%), C (<3%), D (<4%) and E (<5%), however, the mystery of PAST influencing the PRESENT can not be brushed aside.








Note that on 12 March 2013 (latest worst mis-match), the Actual Nifty was 1.12 times the Projection for the said day, and on 26 March 2013 (latest best match), the Actual Nifty was 1.007 times the Projection for the said day. Projection for next week are also listed. 


Here is a super-imposed inverted chart on the Nifty chart since 04/08/2011.



Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Best Performing Stocks: "Market knows"

A Morgan Stanley report released in February 2013 concludes that "the collective wisdom of the market is superior to that of analysts". Capital Market (Feb 18-Mar 03, 2013) made a study of their DATA BASE  & reported that 53 Companies out-performed the BSE Index over 5 years.

It was assumed that an investor followed the SIP system  & bought 1 share at the closing price of month over FIVE YEARS & similarly 1 unit of SENSEX. On the basis of the return so generated compared  with the FIVE years growth of 0.62 (for SENSEX), the study reveals 53 Companies listed on Page 10 .

I had pruned the list, by eliminating Companies with market Capitalisation of Rs. 1,000 crores or less, to just 39 Companies.

Investors may consider these Companies, scrutinise the strong & weak points before investing.Full data are in:

https://excel.office.live.com/x/ExcelView.aspx?FBsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdownload%2Ffile_preview.php%3Fid%3D271187749681168%26time%3D1361430442%26metadata&access_token=1835286898%3AAVKd9GrW_0qtqkmUFtht2mlaMOf-wW5vAWF9HMlG_Dal3A&title=DS_BestMKT2.xlsx

Gillette and BOC  have public holdings less than 25% and are required to comply with the SEBI guidance by either DELISTING or fresh issue to the public.

Caution: there is No guarantee that they may out perform the Index in future just because they had done previously.


Monday, January 7, 2013

Nifty : Performance since High of 2008 (Part 3)


Over the last five years, 31 constituents of the Nifty out performed the Index.
Lupin was Super performer - look at red line - & its consistent moves .


Next is Asian Paints


Next is Sun Pharma


Next is Hero Motors


And finally Dr Reddy had given 5 STARS performance over 5 years
 



Nifty : Performance since High of 2008 (Part 2)


Post all time high in BSE Sensex & NSE Nifty in January 2008,

Neowave analyst Milind Karandikar suggested “the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark”  for the Year 2008,
stock market consultant and analyst Devangshu Datta  talked of “the possibility of moving till 7,000 in the longer-term of six-eight months” and
Orpheus Capitals CEO Mukul Pal predicted  “After Sensex 20,000, the market expectations are for 30,000, but I don't see the Sensex extending beyond 24,000 this year “

Even others were airing similar views such as HSBC securities


All these uproar for the market in 2008 proved wrong and the NSE Nifty  corrected  by over 64% to 2252.75 as on 27/10/2008 shedding 4104 points. Subsequently, it recovered over 99% of loss to regain a  high of 6316+ , e.g., 6338.5 as on 05/11/2010.  Incidentally, after scaling 6K figure first on 11-12-2007, Nifty had a closing in 6K’s in just 66 occasions.


8-Jan-08
6282.45
6357.10
6221.60
6287.85
27-Oct-08
2583.75
2585.30
2252.75
2524.20
5-Nov-10
6321.85
6338.50
6303.10
6312.45

On the eve of 5th Anniversary of the Nifty High, I have to state that the high of 6357.1 is a dream to look forward to. Constituent scrip performed far better over the past five years, however,  anyone who had invested in ETF Nifty is a loser,  as per the attached analysis: -

Please copy & paste to your browser
https://excel.office.live.com/x/ExcelView.aspx?FBsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdownload%2Ffile_preview.php%3Fid%3D131388520355863%26metadata&access_token=1835286898%3AAVKh5Swq7F1xRL1FafPGBQ9Cgu_UzV5G0DsQTcopHeqk2g&title=Nifty_Performance.xlsx


Nifty Index & some of its Constituents had under performed :




Sunday, January 6, 2013

Nifty : Performance since High of 2008


Even though the NSE Nifty is far below the historical high of 2008 (6357), there is talk of Nifty surpassing the earlier high. 

Performances of individual scrips , in the Index, were mixed as shown the followings Charts. (Source: moneycontrol)






















































I shall be reviewing the over all performance of the Index as on 08/01/2008 & its constituents over the past five years.