Nifty : Step Sum Analysis (2004-16)

Further to introduction in my blog

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2015/12/nifty-1995-2015-step-sum-analysis.html

Step Sum is in the form of a new technical tool to evaluate the psychology of the market. It has been developed by Mark Lundeen and it offers a unique insight into the psychology of the market.The step sum is a single item Advance – Decline Line. In other words; if Nifty is down from the previous day’s close, we give it a value of (-1), if they end the day up from the previous day’s close, we give it a value of (+1). So a step sum plot is merely the net sum of up and down market days over time.

15 day running sum of the daily steps used in constructing their step sums may be called “Count 15”   A “Count +/-  15”  means All 15 either Up or Down days in continuation

We are yet to see  “count 15” in Nifty , examined over 5076 days. Even counts exceeding “9” are just a few as displayed below :

, just 50 in total – literally just 1% of the total.

For a meaning full understanding of vast Data, a suitable filter was used. A number of positive “Count 15” – specially one after another - score up the step sum & a number of negative “Count 15” – specially one after another – drag down the step sum. A close examination of Chart is suggested for better understanding.

  

Three  Table incorporating Step Sum Count_15 exceeding 9 is being given :

Next Chart covering Nifty 2001-16 shows Step Sum with Nifty closing ; upper portion tries to depict the influence of "Count_15" (with out filter) in the built up of step sum aspect.

Next one covers 2004-16 with Step Sum (Daily basis) & MSS (Monthly Step Sum)

Step Sum Analysis of Nifty (As on 29/02/2016)

Had introduced the 'step sum' in my earlier blog :

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2015/12/nifty-1995-2015-step-sum-analysis.html

 “15 Count” is  running sum of the daily step used in constructing their step sum over consecutive 15 days. Gold’s 15 count reached a few 10s and 11s over the past five decades but never higher. Then last November during the selling panic in the gold market it declined to a 13 for the first time ever.

Silver’s November bottom was even harder; its 15 count declined to -15. In other words the price of silver fell below its previous closing price every day for three trading weeks. That had never happened before, although just a few months before silver’s January 1980 market top we saw its 15 count reach +15 in September 1979, according to  Mark Lundeen.

“Count +/-  13”  means 14 up (down) & 1 Down(up),

“Count +/-  11”  means 13 up (down) & 2 Down(up),

“Count +/-  9”  means 12 up (down) & 3 Down(up),

And so on

“Count +/-  1”  means 8 up (down) & 7 Down(up). I had examined the history of Nifty Index since 3rd November 1995 (the day from which OHLC is being compiled by NSE). My findings are shared as below :-

Out of 244 months (during 20 years 4 months), Nifty Step Sum Count_15 most were in the range of + 9 to - 9 as per Chart :

However, there were just 2 occasions of "13" count as StepUp

& just 5 occasions of "11" counts as StepDown 

& finally Step Sum Chart for Nifty (Monthly) over 20 years 4 months :

Nifty-bi-monthly-chart : Update as on 29/02/2016

Further to my observations as per my blog

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2015/10/nifty-bi-monthly-chart-1996-2015-update.html

here is the latest Chart from October 1997 :

I am sharing crucial Macd (5,34,5) data  for certain days ; IMHO in these higher degree Elliot Wave , Nifty had done its peak  at 9119.20 thereby gaining 8344 from 775 in December 1996, time-wise taking 19 years 4 months ; Fibonacci 38.2% retrace level is 5932.

 Let us wait patiently for price actions to unfold in the present bears market. 

Nifty : Case for Holdings Long (17 years or more)

Theorem : An investor , holdings on to one's investment for 17 years or more, is on GAINS in spite of turmoils during the holding periods. (Source:   Prof. Jeremy Siegel ,  www.jeremysiegel.com )

Here is my analysis of percentage gains over 884 weeks in the NIFTY Chart -  Pre-March 1999 investors are enjoying their gains in the range of  436 to 908 % .

Based on the existing rewards

, I am looking forward to fresh high during September 2018 through April 2020 based on lows prevailing in the rectangle marked in the chart.

Present bear phase may be utilized to reap handsome rewards in 2 years 7 months. Let us see if the theorem proves itself . 

CNX-Nifty-index-time-frame-cycles-of-21 : Up date # 3

With out stating details of my data constructions, already shared in an early blog :

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2015/10/cnx-nify-index-time-frame-cycles-of-21.html

here is my submission for NIFTY been topped out at 9119 vide chart as on 3rd February 2016 :

IMHO , Nifty at 6357 was in wave-3, 2253 in wave-4 & 9119 in wave-5.

"When the MACD is peaking above the zero-line after a strong move higher that indicates wave 3 is forming. If it is pulling-back after peaking, then it is probably forming wave 4. It is a requirement of wave 4 that it should lead the MACD to move all the way back down to below the zero-line. When 4 finishes the MACD starts rising again as wave 5 begins moving higher in the direction of the main trend. Wave 5 is indicated by the MACD crossing back above the zero-line again and forming a lower MACD high, thus signalling divergence with price which is expected to reach the wave 3 highs as a minimum expectation."

Quoting from https://blog.forex4you.com/how-i-use-macd-to-trade-elliot-waves/

I may recall here that Macd remained in negative territory at the start, was in range of 11 & 13 periods subsequently ; yesterday it dipped the zero line after a gap of  38 periods in confirmation of the Nifty being topped out at 9119

Nifty Index Time Frame 75 Minutes: A re-visit

Quoting from an old blog
http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2014/12/nifty-index-time-frame-75-minutes.html

"  Market in India is from 9:15 AM to 15:30 hours (3:30 PM) and of 375 Minutes duration. As such, a TF of 3 minutes cover a day with 125 candles, TF of 5 minutes covers 2 days, TF of 15 minutes cover 6 days & TF of 75 minutes cover in 30 days - all with 150 candles.

Traditionally, Daily chart  of around 30 weeks is of /around 150 candles. Fractal of daily chart is taken/accepted of being hourly, However, in my opinion , the hourly chart is asymmetrical in nature ; 1st candle depicted as 9:00 is based on 3 candles of TF  15, & 7th candle depicted as 15:00 is based on 3 candles of TF  15. Balance 5 candles (10:00 to 14:00 inclusive) are based on 4 candles of TF 15.  Best option for fractal is no doubt a TF of 75 minutes".

Data from Netdania were sourced by right clicking "Chart Type" icon & selecting "Table" option ; relevant data were copy & pasted to excel sheet. Based on 15 minutes data (with 27 rows for each day) , one obtained 5 sets of OHLC 

Here is a chart for the period of 04/12/2015 to 15/01/2016 based on such derived data :

There were some missing Data from Netdania ; "

There is a vacuum in Data from NetDania on 31/12/2015 & 01/01/2016 (marked in red colours in candle - presume holiday in Nederland)" I had used instead OHLC from NSE for these two days. Macd values are not accurate accordingly, however, with passing of time their effect will be off in next 14 days fully.

Ghulam Ali Gazals

Ghulam Ali - Chupke Chupke Raat Din Aansoo Bahana Yaad Hai - | Ghazal 

LIVE https://youtu.be/MOyfaTxs6D8

Chupke Chupke Raat Din lyrics

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/chupke_chupke_raat_din-lyrics-1215685.html#ixzz3vCc5Gi3G

Chupke chupke raat din aansuu bahanaa yaad hai
Ham ko ab tak aashiqii kaa vo zamaanaa yaad hai
Tujhase milate hi vo kuch Bebaak ho jaanaa meraa
Aur teraa daaton mein vo Ungalii dabaanaa yaad hai
Chori Chori ham se tum aa kar mile the jis Jagah
Muddatein Guzarin par ab tak wo Thikaanaa yaad hai
Khench lenaa vo meraa parde kaa konaa daffaatan
Aur Dupatte se teraa vo Moonh Chhupaanaa yaad hai
Do-pahar ki dhuup mein mere bulaane ke liye
Vo teraa kothe pe nange paaoon aanaa yaad hai
Baahazaaraan iztiraab-o-sad-hazaaraan ishtiyaaq
Tujhase vo pahale pahal dil kaa lagaanaa yaad hai
Jaan kar sotaa tujhe vo qasa-e-paabosii meraa
Aur teraa Thukaraa ke sar vo muskuraanaa yaad hai
Tujh ko jab tanhaa kabhii paanaa to az_raahe-lihaaz
Hal-e-dil baatoon hii baatoon mein jataanaa yaad hai
Jab sivaa mere tumhaaraa koii diivaanaa na thaa
Sach kaho kyaa tum ko bhii vo kaarKhaanaa yaad hai
Gair kii nazaroon se bachakar sab kii marzii ke Khilaaf
Vo teraa chorii chhipe raatoon ko aanaa yaad hai
Aa gaya gar vasl kii shab bhii kahiin zikr-e-firaaq
Vo teraa ro ro ke bhi mujhko rulaanaa yaad hai
Dekhanaa mujhako jo bargashtaa to sau sau naaz se
Jab manaa lenaa to phir Khud ruuTh jaanaa yaad hai
BeruKhii ke Saath sunaanaa Dard-e-Dil kii dastaan
Aur kaliye mein tera vo kangan ghumaanaa yaad hai
Vaqt-e-RuKhsat Alvidaa kaa Lafz Kahane ke liye
Vo Tere Sukhe Laboon kaa thar-tharaanaa yaad hai
Baavajuud-e-iddaa-e-ittaqaa 'Hasrat' mujhe
Aaj tak ahad-e-havas kaa ye fasaanaa yaad hai

Submitted by Guest

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/chamakte_chaand_ko-lyrics-1215671.html#ixzz3vCcVCtj5

 

https://youtu.be/vdzcBlFYKyU

Chamakte Chaand Ko lyrics

huuun huuuum aaaa aaa-2

(chamakte chand ko
chamakte chand ko tuta hua tara bana dala X2
meri aawargi ne mujhko aawara bana dala
chamakte)-2

huuun huuuum aaaa aaa-2

bada dilkash bada rangeen hai yeh shehar kehte hain X2
yahan par hain hazaron ghar gharon mein log rehte hain
mujhe is shehar ne galiyon ka banjara bana dala
chamakte chand...

main is duniya ko aksar dekh kar hairaan hota hun X2
na mujhse ban saka chhota saghar,din raat rota hun
khudaya tune kaise ye jahan sara bana dala
chamakte chand...

mere malik, mera dil kyun tadapta hai, sulagta hai X2
teri marzi , teri marzi pe kiska zor chalta hai
kisi ko gul, kisi ko tune angara bana dala
chamakte chand...

yehi aagaz tha mera, yehi anjam hona tha X2
mujhe barbaad hona tha, mujhe nakaam hona tha
mujhe taqdeer ne taqdeer ka mara bana dala
chamakte chand...

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/jabse_tune_mujhe_deewana_bana_rakha_hai-lyrics-1215689.html#ixzz3vCdO7r7F 

https://youtu.be/CjA0k6dNnZ4

Jabse Tune Mujhe Deewana Bana Rakha Hai lyrics

      

jabase tune mujhe deewaana bana rakha hai
sang har shaks ne haathon mein utha rakha hai

usake dil par bhi kadi ishq me guzari hogi
naam jisane bhi muhabbat ka sazaa rakha hai

pattharon aaj mere sar pe barasate kyon ho
mainne tujhako bhi kabhi apana khuda rakha hai

ab mere deed ki duniya bhi tamaashaai hai
toone kya mujhako mohabbat mein bana rakha hai
nannanana jab se tune haan jab se tune

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali-hum_ko_kis_ke_ghum_ne_mara_ye_kahani_fir_sahi_0#ixzz3vCdn6wPf

https://youtu.be/vpHpiiPmdRI

 

hum ko kis ke ghum ne mara ye kahani fir sahi lyrics

DIL KI CHOTON NE KABHI CHAIN SE RAHNE NA DIYA
JAB Chali SARD HAWA MAIN NE TUJHE YAAD KIYA
IS KA RONA Nahi KYON TUM NE KIYA DIL BARBAAD
IS KA GHAM HAI KE BAHUT DAIR MEIN BARBAAD KIYA

HUM KO KIS KE GHUM NE MARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI
KIS NE TODA DIL HAMARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI

DIL KE LUTNAY KA SABAB POOCHHO NA SABKE SAAMNE
NAAM AAYEGA TUMHARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI

NAFRATON KE TEER KHAKAR DOSTON KE SHEHAR MAIN
HUM NE KIS KIS KO PUKAARA YE KAHANAI PHIR SAHI

KYA BATAAYEN PYAAR KI BAAZI WAFA KI RAAH MEIN
KAUN JEETA KAUN HAARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/itni_muddat_baad_mile_ho-lyrics-1215674.html#ixzz3vCdz0dZ0

https://youtu.be/qzSuC3UrWlE

Itni Muddat Baad Mile Ho lyrics

Itni muddat baad mile ho
Kin sochon mein goom rahte ho

Tej hawaa ne mujhase pucha
Ret pe kya likhte rahte ho

Kaunsi baat hai tumme aaise
Itne achche kyun lagte ho

Hamse na pucho hizr ke kisse
Apni kaho, ab tum kaise ho.