Vardhman Acrylic: Progress in Buy Back

A review of Data since 01-04-2010 is a revealing in the following Table & show utter disgust of the shareholders. It had a long history of being traded below the face value of rs. 10/-. But for recent buy back by the Company, it was a 'heart burn' to all shareholders.

Price { }	Days	Date	Average	Average Traded	Deliverable	% Dly Qt to
			Price	Quantity	Av Qty	Traded Qty
< 8.00	60	8-May-12	7.45	48845	44694	91.50
< 9.00	127	22-Jun-12	8.40	54691	47743	87.30
< 10.00	64	26-Jun-12	9.29	86049	76323	88.70
< 11.00	109	29-Jun-12	10.42	81505	68169	83.64

Date	Number of shares	Deliverable	Others	BB_Qty to	Average	Buy Back
	at NSE	Qty	Qty	Deli_Qty	Price	Rate

22-Jun-12	32971	46441	13470	71.00	8.89	8.93
25-Jun-12	0	19049	19049	0.00	9.13
26-Jun-12	335826	352526	16700	95.26	9.75	9.78
27-Jun-12	186788	205602	18814	90.85	10.11	10.13
28-Jun-12	284409	393537	109128	72.27	10.41	10.45
29-Jun-12	374050	463432	89382	80.71	10.82	10.90

Shareholders are so skeptic of the management's declaration of buy back at a price of maximum rs.12.50, that a numbers of them tendered shares below rs.9 even. Surprisingly, a few investors kept buying ahead of daily buy back rate & collectively gathered 6,12,369 shares. Their interventions forced the Company to raise the BB rate from an average of rs. 8.65 (till 22nd June 2012) to rs. 9.78 on 26th, 10.13 on 27th, 10.45 on 28th & 10.9 on 29th instant.

So far a total of 19,43,011 shares had been bought back, and another 30,56,989 shares must be bought back below rs.12.50 to fulfil the minimum quantaty requirement.

For my earlier post      http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/06/vardhman-acrylics-fixed-deposit-like.html

Vardhman Acrylics : Buy back is destined to Fail

Chart shows the most of volumes were during price at higher than the maximum rate of Rs. 12.50 set for the on-going buy back. With a broker who loves "squazing" all juices out of "nimbu" and investors are , generally, NOT in the habit of selling off at a loss, the buy back scheme is bound to be failure. I shall be surprised if it manages it manages to CROSS ONE CRORE OF SHARES MARK EVEN .

Data of trading & delivery in Vardhman Acrylics are analysed hereinbelow (Source: NSE quotation)

Price { }	Days	Date	Average	Average Traded	Deliverable	% Dly Qt to
			Price	Quantity	Av Qty	Traded Qty
< 8.00	60	8-May-12	7.45	48845	44694	91.50
< 9.00	119	12-Jun-12	8.38	56181	48813	86.89
< 10.00	62	11-Nov-11	9.29	82069	72792	88.70
< 11.00	106	4-Aug-11	10.42	73101	60075	82.18
< 12.00	52	15-Jun-11	11.25	200980	142600	70.95
< 13.00	31	5-May-11	12.11	217096	156783	72.22
< 14.00	61	15-Nov-10	13.32	268613	200795	74.75
< 15.00	44	28-Oct-10	14.45	474810	338689	71.33
< 16.00	22	27-Oct-10	15.52	725910	511774	70.50
>16.00	5	6-Aug-10	16.19	1140823	802271	70.32

First let me explain the table: column I is Price range below 8, column II is number of days traded in that range and last day in that range is shown in next column, average price, traded volume, delivery volume & percentage of delivery to trade are listed.

Significantly,  2,67,86,566 shares (out of 7,40,67,987 shares delivered during 01/04/2010 & 12/06/2012) were traded in the price range of Rs. 12 or lower; my observations are investors cling to their holding & MOSTLY do NOT sell off at a loss.

IMHO, the buy back scheme is destined to fail & may not cross the half mark even.

Vardhman Acrylics : A fixed deposit like Opportunity

Vardhman Acrylics : On going buy back
Date of commencement of Buy-back : May 29, 2012.
Last Date for the Buy-back : May 08, 2013.

Consider buying a Cash certificate at 14% discount : Rs. 10 shares of Vardhman Acrylic was traded at Rs 8.60 today. Book value : Rs 23.11 & EPS : Rs. 2.26 as on 31/03/2012. Inspite of on going buy back by the Company, the shares were trading around Rs. 7.90 to 8.70 since the 30th May & the Company mopped up 78% of the deliverable shares ; details as follows:-

Date	Number of shares	Deliverable	Others
	at NSE	Qty	Qty
30-May-12	50000	97101	47101
31-May-12	29080	33126	4046
1-Jun-12	114988	126888	11900
4-Jun-12	167782	204652	36870
	361850	461767

                   Bought back till monday 361850 shares & a minimum of 46,38,150 shares to be bought. A price rise of 3-4 (Over Rs. 8.60 as present) is expected IMHO by the time full mope is made.
 
Non-promotors holdings are summarised as follows:-

	Numbering	Total_Shares	Av Holdings
Bodies Corporate	492	10896964	22148
Individual <1L	14382	16425402	1142
Individual >1L	475	16374488	34473
TRUSTS & FOUNDATION	2	82989	41495
NRI'S	41	182303	4446
Any Other Total	43	530584	12339
	15435	44492730

Holding company VTM are keen to enhance their holding to 73+ % level , should the buy back is 100% Successful.