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Thursday, July 12, 2012

Benner Cycles & BSE Sensex

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/higgs-bosoncycle-theoryeverything-i/480266/
Samuel Benner ,  a prosperous farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic,  noted that highs of the business tend to follow a repeating 8-9-10 yearly pattern. With respect to economic low points, he noted two series of time sequences indicating that recessions (bad times) anddepressions (panics) tend to alternate. The panic years reflect a repeating 16-18-20 pattern.


The cited article " tested the Benner cycles for DOW 30 (from 1929), Sensex 30 (From 1990), Brazil and China. The Benner clock timed all the lows and highs on the respective indices. Benner suggested a top in 2010 (happened) and a slowdown and low in 2011 (happened). Barring Reliance all the other Sensex 30 stocks are still above December 2011 lows. Benner’s cycle foresees prosperity ahead into 2019 and then depression in 2021. Markets have an innate ability to surprise. We won’t bet against Benner’s TIME symmetry."

High (marked in red Rectangle) followed 9,10 already and next is due to be after  8 years  in the Year 2018. Note the 16 years gap in Low  (marked in Blue Rectangle) . Panic low is marked in Green Rectangle


Applying "Rules of 72", Sensex is required to enhanced to 3910 (in 2000) from 1955 in 1991 & instead it showed Extra growth of 57% ; further, to 12300 in 2010 & instead showed an Extra growth of 76%.
In 2018, projection for Sensex comes to 42,216 & with "fingers crossed " look forward to EXTRA of NN% !

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