The move from 5477.xx - 6229.xx - 5683.xx double teamed by BEBO Scope and Wave O Scope......using Hourly chart.
Orange Line represent divergence by Bebo on the move up from 5477 - 6229...........a clear negative divergence implying END of WAVE
Duration of the move - 27 full sessions.........appropriate is Hourly
The retracement......from 6229..........Is it a retracement?
If so..........we should not violate 5477 and must post a new high!
Is it possible?
We have Negative Divg on Daily chart between prior peak 5630 and most recent peak 6229...............and we have similar divg on hourly chart...........described above.
I do not thing we will visit the 6229 zone..........NOT unless we see a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE on the HOURLY Chart..................and
Currently there is no scope ..............for it to occur.............We will have to rise a bit................and then dip to post new lows.................so shortz are favorable for positional tradez........using front month options (july)
Now to examine the move from 6229.xx which occured with NEG D on big and also bigger degree.....................
Waves for this move down in purple.............and its (c) has done 153% at current low of 5683.xx and has room to go up to 5658
Now the dilemma...........is it (a) (b) (c) = a [simple zz] or is it (a) (b) (c) = w [double zz]
Tough call................coz.......
Helping us here is big hearted BEBO............;)
If it were simple ZZ.............then we shudda had a POSITIVE Divg between point (c) and point (a)..........it is conspicuously absent.
BEBO confirms a lower low...........and hence 5683* is wave green w.
What follows the w in a DZZ............wave x
Commonly known to retrace between 23.6 and 38.2% of wave w..............which did 546* points.
546 x .236 from 5683* is at 5812 and the .382 is at 5892....................
Where will the turn occur?..................I don't know......
However, when the turn occurs..............We should be able to see it.
Now to seek concurrence from Mr. POFT
Our move began 5477.xx and the first higher low after that is 5500............connect these two and extend all the way to the price axis............shown by rising green line.........note..........tha
Each succesive higher low that followed did not touch this line...............so after the NEG D at 6229..............the min target was this green line...............and the maximum..........I DONT KNOW......now.............and I will NEVER EVER KNOW.............
But when the turn occurs............that is when I stand a reasonable chance of figuring it out.......
How far can the x wave go?
Based on fibo.........we already know it is between .236 and .382.........and based on POFTING?????
Draw two more POFT lines.............
6229 - 6133............shown in blue currently around 6000 and declining at the rate of approx 10 point per day.
6133-5972.....most recent POFT.........shown in grey...dclining much more rapidly than the blue............almost 23 point each day.......and currently at about 5800.
Expecting x to do one or all of the following:
Kiss the grey and reverse to post the y
If it kisses the grey and surives for 5 hourly sessions.....it will kiss the underside of the rising green............now at 5900 and rising approx 8 per day.
Turn around zone shaded in yellow.
Once prices breakout over the shorter YELLOW POFT.....................Time to close ALL short positions.....................
and once it surives for 5 sessions................over this............LONG CE
Have a good evening and Jai Chiranjeeva
Orange Line represent divergence by Bebo on the move up from 5477 - 6229...........a clear negative divergence implying END of WAVE
Duration of the move - 27 full sessions.........appropriate is Hourly
The retracement......from 6229..........Is it a retracement?
If so..........we should not violate 5477 and must post a new high!
Is it possible?
We have Negative Divg on Daily chart between prior peak 5630 and most recent peak 6229...............and we have similar divg on hourly chart...........described above.
I do not thing we will visit the 6229 zone..........NOT unless we see a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE on the HOURLY Chart..................and
Currently there is no scope ..............for it to occur.............We will have to rise a bit................and then dip to post new lows.................so shortz are favorable for positional tradez........using front month options (july)
Now to examine the move from 6229.xx which occured with NEG D on big and also bigger degree.....................
Waves for this move down in purple.............and its (c) has done 153% at current low of 5683.xx and has room to go up to 5658
Now the dilemma...........is it (a) (b) (c) = a [simple zz] or is it (a) (b) (c) = w [double zz]
Tough call................coz.......
Helping us here is big hearted BEBO............;)
If it were simple ZZ.............then we shudda had a POSITIVE Divg between point (c) and point (a)..........it is conspicuously absent.
BEBO confirms a lower low...........and hence 5683* is wave green w.
What follows the w in a DZZ............wave x
Commonly known to retrace between 23.6 and 38.2% of wave w..............which did 546* points.
546 x .236 from 5683* is at 5812 and the .382 is at 5892....................
Where will the turn occur?..................I don't know......
However, when the turn occurs..............We should be able to see it.
Now to seek concurrence from Mr. POFT
Our move began 5477.xx and the first higher low after that is 5500............connect these two and extend all the way to the price axis............shown by rising green line.........note..........tha
Each succesive higher low that followed did not touch this line...............so after the NEG D at 6229..............the min target was this green line...............and the maximum..........I DONT KNOW......now.............and I will NEVER EVER KNOW.............
But when the turn occurs............that is when I stand a reasonable chance of figuring it out.......
How far can the x wave go?
Based on fibo.........we already know it is between .236 and .382.........and based on POFTING?????
Draw two more POFT lines.............
6229 - 6133............shown in blue currently around 6000 and declining at the rate of approx 10 point per day.
6133-5972.....most recent POFT.........shown in grey...dclining much more rapidly than the blue............almost 23 point each day.......and currently at about 5800.
Expecting x to do one or all of the following:
Kiss the grey and reverse to post the y
If it kisses the grey and surives for 5 hourly sessions.....it will kiss the underside of the rising green............now at 5900 and rising approx 8 per day.
Turn around zone shaded in yellow.
Once prices breakout over the shorter YELLOW POFT.....................Time to close ALL short positions.....................
and once it surives for 5 sessions................over this............LONG CE
Have a good evening and Jai Chiranjeeva
"1. When the down trend is nearing its "oversold" &" public apathy" & "Panic" situation, you will notice a +ve div in the down move's 4th & 5th wave down OR in "b" & "c" down OR in "c4" & "c5", there by identifying the start of the 1 st wave.
ReplyDelete2. First wave generally gets exhausted with the macd moving into +ve area and this can be fine tuned with the help of hour charts. In underperformers, macd may find it difficult to get into positive territory but moves closer to "0".
3. In the Second wave, macd moves back into negative once again. In outperformers, macd may stay above "0" but moves down closer to "0".
4. Third wave upmove takes macd strongly up to the extreme upsides. Then. in outperformers the macd may move down with prices continuing to move up and as the macd moves up again, prices move much higher. This is where the "novice" investors/ traders read the direction of the macd with prices quite literally and miss a huge upmove..Exhaustion in this uptrend can be gauged from the "gaps", "volume" as well as following the 3rd wave subdivisions in the "hourly charts".
5. Fourth wave moves become triangles to carry out time correction if the third wave was very steep and swift Or an alternation to the second wave(if 2nd is flat, then the 4th is zigzag and vice versa). In underperformers, the macd moves into negative while in outperformers it stays above "0" but comes well off its high reading to set itself for a negative divergence base.
6. Fifth wave or the "froth" or the "speculative move" will bring in mostly the retailers with a herd kind of move to new highs while the macd making a lower high thereby developing a negative divergence. In a strongly trending markets, the 5th wave gets extended with series of negative divergences frustrating the bears and confounding the bulls and the falls happen with a sudden reversal when complacency sets into bulls.
7. During the reversal, the first wave down takes the macd into negative territory and the second wave up into positive and the cycle repeats itself in the opposite direction.
Sounds simple..But as you watch the prices move on your monitor, you generally tend to forget all your lessons. Best EW practioners have "military discipline" in them..those who mean business ...be it in any phase/ aspect of life.
When a trading competition was held in the USA for EW practitioners, most of the toppers had military background which gave them the edge over others in carrying out the commands without questioning.
All the EW followers will admit that the most difficult part of EW practice is "to believe in what one sees" . Correct labeling of the charts once the moves are over for posterity is easy . Needless to say here that "you are right only when you make money" and that is "act when you should without questioning".
Posted by Ilango Labels: Elliott wave, Negative Divergence play, Positive divergence play, Technical Analysis