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Saturday, May 23, 2015

CNX NIFTY INDEX Time Frame : Cycles of 21 days - Update # 1

Here I have up dated my views on my earlier blog entitled :
http://kolkatabull.blogspot.in/2015/03/cnx-nifty-index-time-frame-cycles-of-21.html

In this Chart I examined the first 150 candles from my excel aided data base. What is being represented by 5EMA & 34EMA  are shown. My overall impression is based on Elliot Wave Oscillator aka Macd (5,34,5). Initially my findings are inconclusive.

" Wave 5 often makes a new high or low price for the swing but always diverges from the Oscillator. If the suspected Wave 5 makes a new extreme price simultaneously with a new Oscillator extreme then it is not a Wave 5 " according to http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott_oscillator.htm
If Nifty closes at/above 8874 , in TF of 21 days cycle, on 19/05/2015, Macd & Macd histogram shall be above that during W3 peak thereby W5 shall be invalidated; however, Macd corresponding to supposed '5' remained below that for supposed '3' & further the histogram had turned negative with a value of (161) { minus 161} . My  Iabel are as in the chart :
  


IMHO Nifty had topped out for the time being & presently wave  A in retracement of big up move of 9119-920 = 8199 is in play.  



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