NIFTY : Thrusting Up or Down ?

My first observation of the rise of Nifty was " Notice in the 5 hourly NIFTY future chart the 1st triangle starting 01/02/12 & ending on 07/03/12 was of 35 days, 2nd ending on 29/03 was of 22 days & 3rd ending on almost 11/04 was of 13 days with the Yellow base line. Time-wise there is co-relation with fibonacci numbers 34, 21 & 13 ! All made lower High & but found support along the yellow (~ 5175) line (April 12 at 9:17am)". Situation stands updated in the daily chart.

However, in to-day's 1 minute chart, the Nifty , after 'Yo-Yoing' till 2 PM, seems to have conceded the battle before over-welming distributions and retreated to low of the day creating a black candle. NIFTY, having failed to thrust UP, is heading for a DOWN move to around 5000 in a few days IMHO.

Nifty : Wealth Creaters

Company Name	13/04/12	Retracement level	Twelve M Trailing  EPS	Book value
	Price	Fibo_61.8 Yearly			P/E Ratio	RONW
Wealth Creater
Tata Steel	449.80	448.892	93.99	364.35	4.79	25.80
Sesa Goa	186.20	217.142	34.46	147.40	5.40	23.38
Sterlite Ind	106.85	125.728	16.30	123.28	6.56	13.22
PNB	902.50	937.124	137.43	634.13	6.57	21.67
Cairn India	341.80	307.064	43.04	210.96	7.94	20.40
Grasim	2640.35	2343.372	296.31	1585.21	8.91	18.69
Tata Motors	289.30	199.12	31.26	59.94	9.25	52.15
BHEL	258.50	309.71	26.38	82.35	9.80	32.03
ONGC	260.80	274.088	26.03	134.80	10.02	19.31
GAIL	356.25	385.884	31.16	167.24	11.43	18.63
Reliance	751.55	823.756	64.69	451.97	11.62	14.31
Axis Bank	1162.15	1056.748	96.45	459.80	12.05	20.98
Jindal Steel	497.55	536.848	40.57	150.93	12.26	26.88
SBI	2212.30	2101.598	172.07	968.44	12.86	17.77
Bajaj Auto	1639.45	1482.706	125.52	166.13	13.06	75.56
IDFC	132.45	117.122	9.96	74.35	13.30	13.40
NTPC	166.75	167.28	11.41	83.01	14.61	13.75
Coal India	338.90	342.896	22.74	52.75	14.90	43.11
Mah and Mah	691.85	716.32	42.52	231.91	16.27	18.33
ICICI Bank	865.00	831.236	52.19	477.82	16.57	10.92
Power Grid Corp	112.00	102.022	6.42	46.52	17.45	13.80
Infosys	2402.55	2596.334	136.15	452.37	17.65	30.10
Hero Motocorp	2056.55	1832.85	113.99	148.03	18.04	77.00
ACC	1258.75	1110.528	69.33	383.08	18.16	18.10
Larsen	1282.30	1312.418	68.94	401.81	18.60	17.16
Wipro	419.30	372.502	22.23	91.46	18.86	24.31
Ambuja Cements	161.90	143.684	8.00	57.36	20.24	13.95
TCS	1068.35	1046.778	51.82	125.20	20.62	41.39
HCL Tech	478.95	424.176	23.23	110.52	20.62	21.02
Dr Reddys Labs	1735.00	1536.126	83.63	237.78	20.75	35.17
Maruti Suzuki	1322.75	1102.078	57.29	495.25	23.09	11.57
Kotak Mahindra	581.50	472.524	24.34	91.76	23.89	26.53
Cipla	314.05	306.234	13.04	82.91	24.08	15.73
HDFC Bank	529.35	453.48	20.57	108.14	25.73	19.02
Bharti Airtel	323.50	368.278	12.25	117.70	26.41	10.41
Sun Pharma	585.40	491.142	21.34	91.57	27.43	23.30
ITC	236.25	202.066	7.46	20.92	31.67	35.66
HUL	425.15	327.884	11.91	12.23	35.70	97.38
Siemens	791.05	750.386	20.02	112.11	39.51	17.86

Nifty Wealth Destroyers

In course of analyzing Nifty, its component’s SMA (Simple moving average), trailing 12 months EPS & book value, I found 11 Companies are wealth destroyer in the sense that they earn less than 10% yearly basis which is being available from putting one’s wealth with a Bank.   Surprisingly but for Reliance Comm, Hindalco & Reliance Infrastructure, all are quoting over their book value.

Bluest of blue chips & darling of FII HDFC Ltd. Is among these wealth destroyer ; P/E ratio being 25+ & Price: book value being 2+

Price	Company Name	12 TEPS	Book value	P/E Ratio	RONW
677.85	BPCL	-47.47	424.60	Negative	Negative
499.80	Ranbaxy Labs	-68.72	132.48	Negative	Negative
103.20	Tata Power	0.36	59.11	286.67	0.61
84.40	Reliance Comm	3.70	196.22	22.81	1.89
114.85	Reliance Power	2.94	60.01	39.06	4.90
197.90	DLF	7.91	154.89	25.02	5.11
77.35	Jaiprakash Asso	3.48	49.74	22.23	7.00
124.85	Hindalco	12.03	151.56	10.38	7.94
546.00	Reliance Infra	69.81	877.07	7.82	7.96
679.00	HDFC	26.66	318.72	25.47	8.36
93.55	SAIL	8.47	91.04	11.04	9.30

Nifty : A study of past Four months

Notice in the 5 hourly NIFTY future chart the 1st triangle starting 01/02/12 & ending on 07/03/12 was of 35 days, 2nd ending on 29/03 was of 22 days & 3rd ending on almost 11/04 was of 13 days with the Red base line. Time-wise there is co-relation with fibonacci numbers 34, 21 & 13 ! All made lower High & but found support along the yellow (~ 5175) line.

In this Nifty chart, lower line is 4531 the recent low, next line (5080 is 50% retracement level from 5629) and top line around 5170 is giving support repeatedly to form three tringles .

Nifty with Short term Bollinger Bands

In the chart, had viewed it along with short term Bollinger Bands with 5 days & 8 days (SD 1.5 being the minimum acceptable) and moving average MA (13 days) ; 5,8 & 13 being Fibonacci numbers.
Bollinger Band 5 crossing BB 8 on 05-01-12 starting a steady rise of Nifty within upper BB5 & BB5 till 24-02-12 when there is reversing of BBs, i.e., BB8 crossing BB5 along with Nifty going down within BB8 & lower BB8. There were similar change over on 13-03-12 & 20-03-12 with similarities in NIFTY movement.

Situations of these Bollinger bands & MA on 02-04-12 are identical with that as on 05-01-12 ; is NIFTY set to go UP as in the earlier occasions ?

Nifty : Observations over Three years

A three years view of the NSE Nifty weekly chart with Fibonacci projections are shown. From a low of 2965 in  03 April 2009 , Nifty peaked at 6335 in 05 Nov 2010 commensurate with 61.8 projection. Clouded areas show the significant times the Nifty were hovering most of the past three years. Note the 50% retracement level 4651.           
Recent low of 4531 in 23 Dec 2011 is slightly over    the 4254 line (61.8 retracement level) ; it look like to be not re-visited soon.

Reliance Industries : Buying Opportunity ?

"Reliance has tested the 2 year resistance or fence where it escaped and has started to fall back."

Presently, it is getting support around lower Bollinger band. Is it time to start accumulation around 705-720 band? Reliance has an intrinsic value of around 685 and buoncy in crude oil augurs well . 

According to EWIndia blogger :"If this is in C wave as marked, we should be at 465 sooner or later!" http://www.elliotwaveindia.com/2011/11/reliance-bear-setup.html