Nifty (1995-2015) : Step Sum Analysis

Step Sum is in the form of a new technical tool to evaluate the psychology of the market. It has been developed by Mark Lundeen and it offers a unique insight into the psychology of the market. The step sum is simply a running total of up vs. down  days and it reflects trader psychology.

The step sum is a single item Advance – Decline Line. In other words; if Nifty is down from the previous day’s close, we give it a value of (-1), if they end the day up from the previous day’s close, we give it a value of (+1). So a step sum plot is merely the net sum of up and down market days over time.  

I had ,in addition , observed continuous up or down as if a single up or down. It is the amazing thing about the daily ups and downs of the market is that over time 242 months , through bull markets and bear, Nifty index in the markets, see about as many up days as down. Most outstanding observation is that the sum of Step_Up over this long period is identical with that of Step_Down over the same period, , monthly positions are tabulated :  Number of months (With 0) : 117, balance arising out of Number of months (With 1) : 63, Number of months (With -1) : 61 and Number of months (With -2) : 1 is Zero only.

A Chart of  Step_Up or Step_Down , in the range of 2 to 8 monthly ,is shared here :

I had applied this basic concept to Nifty Data from 3rd November 1995 (for which OHLC) available from NSE site. I have used basic as per details in attached screen-shot of the excel.

Based on Data till end of 2015, first full Step Sum NIFTY chart is being shared                                 here in below :

Basic observations arising out of 5027 days are being shared in below :

It looks to me  the Step_Up's , with average value of 33.18541 ,  and  the Step_Down's ,                 with average value of 34.40273 are behaving as a irregular pendulum ; a graphical          representation follows : 

Silver $ Chart : Time Frame Fortnightly Update # 2

IMHO, Silver looks at the fag end of (B) with low of 13.915 on November 23, 2015 {79.25% of (A) done} & likely to get support from TL from 5.52-8.41 rising projection around 13.6  ; let us watch for termination .

Here is a closer views in a 150 candles from same Data : a wedge & triple bottom is being observed

 

In the next chart, we are viewing moves more closely in 12 hourly chart; notice wedge break down from 17.77 to 13.97 was retraced to the extent of 62.7%  at 16.356 , and subsequently made a lower low at 13.915. Let us wait price action.

Nifty Bi-Monthly Chart 1996-2015 :Update # 2

Further to my earlier post  http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.com/2015/06/nifty-bi-monthly-chart-1996-2015.html, I am sharing my observation as on 30th October 2015

 As such, using a zoomed view over last 119 candles fulfilling the minimum requirement :

I am sharing crucial Macd (5,34,5) data  for certain days ; IMHO in these higher degree Elliot Wave , Nifty had done its peak for the time being as shown by a higher Nifty with lower Macd readings.

A higher high in December 2015 with next candle with closing at/over 9801  shall result in the histogram being rendered positive. I am not expecting that high this year

CNX-Nify-index-time-frame-cycles-of-21 : Up date #2

Further to my earlier blog http://kolkatabull.blogspot.in/2015/03/cnx-nifty-index-time-frame-cycles-of-21.html , I had up dated my excel sheet & revised the Data thoroughly. Here is a chart covering the full of NSE Data ; initial closing basis data over 21 days were used to create OHLC data & subsequently data were suitablelally modified to incorporate OHLC data available with 
3rd November 1995 , resulting in a chart with 291 candles (last one in progress till 02/11/2015) :-

  

Here are zoomed view of 150 candle with Macd (5,34,5) of the Index initial stage :

Next, I had filtered out the initial candles for which Macd are not available due to default requirements ; divergence in price action with Macd leads to crossing of the zero line :-

Next I am sharing subsequent data with an up swing :

And finally , in my HO Nifty looks topped out for the time being : -

 

Silver $ Chart : Time Frame Fortnightly Update # 1

IMHO, Silver looks at the fag end of (B) with low of 13.97 in August 2015 {79.1% of (A) done} & likely to get support from TL from 5.52-8.41 rising projection around 12.8  ; let us watch for termination .

Here is a closer views in a 150 candles from same Data : a wedge & triple bottom is being observed

In the next chart, we are viewing moves more closely in 12 hourly chart; notice fall from 17.77 to 14.38 was retraced to the extent of 38.2% , and a divergence between chart & Macd , & duely falling with crossing of the zero line. Let us wait price action.

(C) wave is estimated to give a minimum of  61.8% of (A) { 27.97 } to a very higher value in the next up move.

Nifty Bi-Monthly Chart 1996-2015 : An Update

Nifty Index is being compiled since 02/07/1990 ; as such, a Time Frame of Bi-Monthly (Open, High, Low & Close over a period of two months for the Index) cover the full range of the Index since inception , starting August 1990 & ending on today,  in 151 candles is shown herein.

MACD (5,34,5) is not available for the first 39 candles due to default Data requirement. As such, using a zoomed view over last 117 candles fulfilling the minimum requirement :

I am sharing crucial Macd (5,34,5) data  for certain days (inclusive Milestone numbers ) ; IMHO in these higher degree Elliot Wave , Nifty had done its peak for the time being as shown by a higher Nifty with lower Macd readings.

Next candle with closing at/over 9482 shall result in the histogram being rendered positive  or we may to wait longer. 

Silver - $/Oz : Fortnightly Chart

After a life time high in 1980's , Silver remained in bear grips over a long period.

Over the last 15 years, I observed there appears a ABC pattern in weekly chart ; as its retracement from last high of 49.79 is best to be viewed in a fortnightly chart. Accordingly, I had sourced the weekly Data from NetDania.com to an excel file & there after created a fortnightly . Here is the resultant chart with Macd (5,34,5) :

 
IMHO, Silver looks at the fag end of (B) & likely to get support from TL from 5.52-8.41 ; let us watch for termination . (C) wave is estimated to give a minimum of  61.8% of (A) { 27.97 } to a very higher value in the next up move.

Here is a closer views in a 150 candles from same Data : a wedge & double bottom is being observed.