Nifty : BiMonthly chart with MACD (5,34,5) aka Elliot Wave Oscillator

Sunday, 29 July 2018

Nifty Index is being compiled since 02/07/1990 ; as such, a Time Frame of Bi-Monthly (Open, High, Low & Close over a period of two months for the Index) cover the full range of the Index since inception (in log Scale ) :

 

Chart with Macd

The most revealing fact is that Index is very bullish since inception with (1) positive Macd - implying EMA(5) is greater than EMA(34) - being in almost 85% time , (2) Macd was positive in first 15 candles , period ending on June 1998, while a low of 775 was recorded, with details listed in Table ;

 (3) Macd topped at 2175 while Nifty was 6357 & remains all time high , (4) Macd cross down zero line with Nifty reacting to a low of 2253 and finally (5) march of positive MACD is in progress counting 55th candle & Nifty showed significant Higher High at 9119 and as at present 11283 but Macd lower than ATH .

My understanding of EWO suggested that :-
big W= 6357 - 775 = 5582,
followed by retracement by 73.5 leading to X = 6357-2253 = 4104 and
presently in progress Y = 11283 - 2253 = 9030 , just a point below 161.8 of W.

Nifty - TF Bimonthly 2018

Supplement as on 28th February 2018 to my earlier blog http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2017/03/nifty-bimonthly-as-on-february-2017.html with charts up dated :

 

Next, let us review Macd (5,34,5) in details as in attachment :

 

Notice Macd were mostly in positive territory signifying EMA_5 being greater than EMA_34 (including current phase of 52 candles post dip of 2253).  Based on EWO , Nifty had a 3rd wave characteristic top at 6357, 4th wave bottom at 2253 & subsequent 5th wave unfurling in 5 wave Macd remaining smaller than extreme value of 2175 corresponding to Nifty 6357.

Let us examine Macd post dip of 2253 in a fractal #TF5DaysCycle #Nse #Nifty chart :

Following tables may be referred for better understanding of chart detailing phases of Macd in positive territory with alternate bouts of less period in negative territory.

 

No clue for #ZeroLine dip in even #TF5DaysCycle (1111 candles available) leave aside such in bigger #TF.

Nifty Index (1996-2018) in #TF34DaysCycle

Nifty since 1995 to recent ATH is being covered  in a Chart as up date to my Blog :

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5614506921018825426#editor/target=post;postID=7101823105954263106;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=6;src=postname

On 274^th day of O(pen)H(igh)L(ow)C(lose) Data availability (4^th December 1996) , #Nifty Index showed the life time LOW of 775.43 & on 5542nd day (29-Jan-2018) the A(ll)T(ime)H(igh) of 11171.55  was seen after (5542 – 274 =)  5268 days ; as such ATF  is 35.12 days. I presume my 34 DaysCycle chart is OK  in  the present  circumstance. Let us have a look for Period ended 29/01/2018 :-

In modified Elliot Wave jargon, w = 6357 - 775 = 5582, x = 6357 - 2252 = 4104 & y = 11172 - 2252 =  8920 (159.8% of w) in progress. Full data are being shared in Table :

y should Not exceed 11285 ; IDNK if there is more up side in store for Nifty. Macd remained in positive territory in excess of 75% in confirmation of  sayings : "Bulls are Kings" .
 

Nifty : History of Macd in #TF5DaysCycle

Further to http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2017/11/nifty-timeframe-5dayscycle-1995-2017.html 

Based on P(oint)O(f)F(irst)T(ouch)  2253, 5519 & 6826, IMO support from them should be seen around 7500,8000 & 9000, respectively. Before that EMA_5, EMA_21 & EMA_34 should provide supports presently around 10318, 10,061 & 9505,respectively .On Friday last, Nifty closed at 10321.75 with OHL being 10304.35, 10344.95 & 10254.10.

I would like to discuss the cross over of Macd ,aka Elliot Wave Oscillator,  #Z(ero)L(ine) over last 659 candles (since 12 Aug 2004) ; out of these 569 (i.e., 86+% of cases) were positive (EMA_5 greater than EMA_34)  and just 90 were otherwise (i.e., below ZL). A graphical representation follows:

With  reference to table below, please note that :

a) Nifty moves up in 92 candles with gain of 2336 points over 471 days since the prior low while in the grip of Bears with Macd remaining below the zero line;

b) Nifty corrected over 50% in just 24 days endorsing the

 Fact that Bulls take long time to gains which is always eroded in a shorter time.

Continuation sheet of the Table :

Last & current Bullish phase is now with 82 candles completed ,present phase had given a peak of 10,490 & fingers crossed till a Higher High  & eventual ZL dip show up.

Big question is how many more days before Bears take over. No idea  . Earlier we had seen 2 cases of 92 candles while Nifty were at 6357 &, 6338, respectively  & 1 case of 99 candles while Nifty were at  9119 . 

Nifty : TimeFrame 5DaysCycle - 1995-2017

Nse Nifty Index is available in OHLC basis since 06 November 1995 ; here is a 5DaysCycle chart wherein Open from a range of 5 Days' DATA, High & Low of that range & finally Close were selected from Data sourced from NSE site and a Chart was created with excel in usual course :

Exponential Moving Average over 5 & 34 periods were derived  & finally MACD (5,34,5) were derived. Let me list a few key observations :

Over a 5DaysCycle Nifty is having lots of up & down (Including side wise moves) over 1875 Minutes in consecutive five days   but represented in a single Candle.

Out of 1095 candles, Macd were found to be positive (i.e., EMA_5 > EMA_34 so that immediate (current) trend were robust than longer-time trend)  in about 77% period & rest in negative. Following two tables list such trend :

Notice consecutive periods of positive duration in range of 1 to 99 but mostly double digit numbers showing bullishness.

In contrast negative duration in range of 1 to 33 but mostly single digit numbers showing bearishness.

Nifty : Time Frame 34 DaysCycle

On 274^th day of O(pen)H(igh)L(ow)C(lose) Data availability (4^th December 1996) , #Nifty Index showed the life time LOW of 775.43 & on 5471th day (17-Oct-2017) the A(ll)T(ime)H(igh) of 10251.85  was seen after (5471 – 274 =)  5197 days ; ATF as such is 34.65 days. I presume my 34 DaysCycle chart is OK  in  the present  circumstance. Let us have a look for Period end 23/10/2017 :-

 

Next is a 150 candle Chart to comply with Macd (5,34,5) better representation :-

 

A table with select values of Nifty & Macd  may be referred for both the above charts.

Significantly, low to high were in the range of 521 to 5507 over the long duration & subsequent correction (High to low) were in the range of 44 to 95%. EMA_5 were more than EMA_34 in about 79% time (118 candle in positive territory while 32 in negative in the last 150 candle count).

But for a short period of 2 candles (with dip of #ZeroLine during 4531), Macd were in positive territory during last 41 candle nearly 6 years. Looking at EMA's chart there is a little chance of dip even though divergence shown : -

 

Step Sum Analysis : Nifty as at March 2017

With out explanation as http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2016/09/analysis-of-nifty-with-step-sum.html  amply cover, let me put up a Nifty Step Sum chart for 5 years period ended on 31^st March 2017 :

 

Next chart is end of month picture over five years.

 

Nifty index ,since 03/11/1995, is behaving like a irregular pendulum with sometime "Step Up" or "Step Down" and picture as on 31st March 2017 being displayed below :

 

In short, Nifty Index had 2827 number of "Step Up" , 7 number of  "No change" and 2502 number of "Step Down" giving the value of Step Sum of 325. Some significant Step Sum numbers are Tabulated below :

 

#1 : Nifty all time low ATL 775.43 had a Step Sum value of minus 35 based on 119 “Step Up” & 154 “Step Down”.

#2 : On 30/10/2002 step sum showed a 0 (Zero value) & remained positive since then.

#3 : With ATH in Nifty at 9119, step sum showed a high of 314 based on  2566 “Step Up” & 2252 “Step Down”, subsequently after a peak of 315 & low of 287 and  it came out of the range to show a high of 325 on 30^th March 15, 2017.

Count_15 signifies number of "Step Up" & "Step Sum" in 15 days. Following two charts depict Step Sum with Count_15 for full data :

 

Next, filtering out almost 95% of data with Count_15 < (+/-)7 ;   that just four cases of  13  implying 14 "Step up" with 1 "step down" and one case of (-) 13 implying 14 "Step down" with 1 "step up" were seen for Nifty.

 

 Analysis of "count_15" over year 1995-2017 along with Yearly Step Sum  are covered in Table :

 

It is observed that incremental step sum is a function of netting of Positive & Negative value of Count_15 during the year ; as for example in Year 2003 huge rise of 56 in Step Sum was helped Count_15 been 3 of Cnt 13, 15 of Cnt 11, 30 of Cnt 9, 23 of Cnt 7, 30 of Cnt 5, 7 of Cnt 3 & negative 17 of Cnt 1  .

 Example of dragging down in Count_15 is shown in next Table :