EVA (Economic value added) & a selection from Indian Corporate World.

EVA (Economic value added) was first seen by me in the pages of the Annual Report by Hindustan Lever a few years back.
Simply a Company uses Shareholders' wealth & burrowed capital to run a Business. Consider the cost of borrowing in a year to be 10% say ; shareholders's Wealth Capital & accumulation) does NOT cost any thing but these risk capital may be assigned a cost element 1.25 times the cost of borrowing {extra 25% for risk associated).
Whenever, a Company perform well & in excess of such deemed cost of risk capital, it is said to have EVA plus Company. A simple parameter for this is RONW (Return on net worth) being EPS (earning per share) by BV (book value). Based on Data (sourced from Capital Market, Aug 4-17 issue), the excel incorporate annual BV, EPS & trailing EPS & calculate RONW's ; had used a cut off of 20% RONW in the said source & Sales exceeding Rs. 300 crores to weed out marginal (small) Company.
Nifty are listed in a sheet & others (Including Nifty) in another

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A selection of out performers in EVA positive sense :

A selection of under performers in EVA  sense so much so may be called wealth Destroyers

A selection of out performers in EVA positive sense from Indian Corporate world (inclusive Nifty) :

Nifty : Bi-Monthly Chart (1990-2013)

Nifty Index is being compiled since 03/07/1990, initially on closing basic only. O H LC is being compiled with effect from 03/11/1995.

 As data is limited, I am making a "Bi-Monthly" chart instead so that we have a Chart since inception.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av41dGrpKfhMdEp1RzZvQUFmbVBERGhSNy1RelNSeWc#gid=0

Milestone day of Nifty Index on reaching 1-6 K ; 7K is evasive for a pretty long time . Further, details of single day candles of 1000 points or more also tabulated.

Nifty : Projecting a High during August 2013

Without repeating my earlier observations,
http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2013/05/nifty-mirror-inversion-2009-13.html

I shall explain a slight change in my hypothesis of the 'mathematical model' for Nifty Index value. Earlier, the point "5280" was used as a 'pivot' for all calculations. Influenced by 'perturbation theory' , & my observation of  the Gann square having a great role in many things RANDOM, I have set the 'pivot' as

5256.5 = mean of { Sq (73) + Sq (72) }= (5329+5184)/2.

5329 was selected influenced by close of 4-8-2011 & 5184 was selected by open of  very next day.

OHLC value of the Nifty was used to determine the value of ‘Open - 5256.5’, ‘High-5256.5’, ‘Low-5256.5’ & ‘Close-5256.5’ , e.g., 155.9, 178.0, 66.65 & 75.3 for 4-Aug-2011. Similarly for all prior days based on historical data { Sample data in 'Pink' shaded as above } ( Data Sourced from NSE).

Accordingly, mirror projections for 5 Aug 11 are calculated as :
open =5256.5 -75.3 (corresponding to CLOSE), high =5256.5 - 66.65 (corresponding to LOW), low=5256.5 -178 (corresponding to HIGH) & close=5256.5 -132.4 (corresponding to OPEN) {Data pertaining 4 Aug 11}.

Calculations for SUBSEQUENT days were made SIMILARLY based on PRIOR days (e.g., 8 Aug 11, 9 Aug 11 etc etc  3 Aug 11, 2 Aug 11 etc etc) { Sample data in 'Blue' shaded as above }
Actual Index had been AHEAD of the projected value mostly over the period of 491 days. Latest variations are as per the attached Chart :

And, the 'Projection Values'  are tabulated  for a month ending on 24th July 2013 ,in the image of Excel sheets, Remark implies 'Actual' is 1.01, etc. times the Mirror Projections  as follows:

Projected value of the Index for the month of August 2013 are as follows:

Cross your fingers & await a range of "5700-6400 " in the coming month.

SBI & its Listed Subsidiary: A comparative Study

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Nifty EOD 14/06/2013

Red line is POFT (following Wave Rider) in this Hourly chart &  green line connecting 6133-5972 (most recent POFT) ; Friday's bounce back touch this line after recovery of 39% of previous falls (273).  POFT line

     6229 - 6133 are shown in blue.

Chart in 5 Hrs

After two spinning tops ,below the POFT red line, Friday ended with  morning star and bullish abondoned baby pattern . With RBI policy due, Monday is going to have a crucial day for Nifty.

BEBO: Understanding MACD Oscillators

Lower MACD (5,34,5) as in my Charts.

The move from 5477.xx - 6229.xx - 5683.xx double teamed by BEBO Scope and Wave O Scope......using Hourly chart.

Orange Line represent divergence by Bebo on the move up from 5477 - 6229...........a clear negative divergence implying END of WAVE

Duration of the move - 27 full sessions.........appropriate is Hourly

The retracement......from 6229..........Is it a retracement?
If so..........we should not violate 5477 and must post a new high!

Is it possible?
We have Negative Divg on Daily chart between prior peak 5630 and most recent peak 6229...............and we have similar divg on hourly chart...........described above.

I do not thing we will visit the 6229 zone..........NOT unless we see a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE on the HOURLY Chart..................and

Currently there is no scope ..............for it to occur.............We will have to rise a bit................and then dip to post new lows.................so shortz are favorable for positional tradez........using front month options (july) 

Now to examine the move from 6229.xx which occured with NEG D on big and also bigger degree.....................

Waves for this move down in purple.............and its (c) has done 153% at current low of 5683.xx and has room to go up to 5658

Now the dilemma...........is it (a) (b) (c) = a [simple zz] or is it (a) (b) (c) = w [double zz]

Tough call................coz............if the move 6229-5683* is wave a...............the wave b that follows wud retrace a min of 38.2% and max of 99.99%.............(ZZ rule of wave b will not go beyond start of green a (6229)

Helping us here is big hearted BEBO............;)

If it were simple ZZ.............then we shudda had a POSITIVE Divg between point (c) and point (a)..........it is conspicuously absent.

BEBO confirms a lower low...........and hence 5683* is wave green w.

What follows the w in a DZZ............wave x

Commonly known to retrace between 23.6 and 38.2% of wave w..............which did 546* points.

546 x .236 from 5683* is at 5812 and the .382 is at 5892....................

Where will the turn occur?..................I don't know......
However, when the turn occurs..............We should be able to see it.

Now to seek concurrence from Mr. POFT

Our move began 5477.xx and the first higher low after that is 5500............connect these two and extend all the way to the price axis............shown by rising green line.........note..........that

Each succesive higher low that followed did not touch this line...............so after the NEG D at 6229..............the min target was this green line...............and the maximum..........I DONT KNOW......now.............and I will NEVER EVER KNOW.............

But when the turn occurs............that is when I stand a reasonable chance of figuring it out.......

How far can the x wave go?
Based on fibo.........we already know it is between .236 and .382.........and based on POFTING?????

Draw two more POFT lines.............
6229 - 6133............shown in blue currently around 6000 and declining at the rate of approx 10 point per day.

6133-5972.....most recent POFT.........shown in grey...dclining much more rapidly than the blue............almost 23 point each day.......and currently at about 5800.

Expecting x to do one or all of the following:

Kiss the grey and reverse to post the y
If it kisses the grey and surives for 5 hourly sessions.....it will kiss the underside of the rising green............now at 5900 and rising approx 8 per day.

Turn around zone shaded in yellow.

Once prices breakout over the shorter YELLOW POFT.....................Time to close ALL short positions.........................

and once it surives for 5 sessions................over this............LONG CE 

Have a good evening and Jai Chiranjeeva 

Nifty : Mirror inversion (2009-13)

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon, per dictionary.

As my hypothesis is “after two GAPS Down one after another , waves are PENDULUM like reverting, so to say after inverting anti-clock wise by 180 degree.”

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/06/nifty-inversion-of-waves-over-2-years.html

On 5th August 2011, there was Gap down of 127.45 in NIFTY and on the next working day the 8th August, there was a Gap down of 127.40 further. '5280' is the middle point of two candles in the chart.

OHLC value of the Nifty was used to determine the value of ‘Open - 5280’, ‘High-5280’, ‘Low-5280’ & ‘Close-5280’ , eg., 132.4, 154.5, 43.15 & 51.8 for 4-Aug-2011. Similarly for all prior days based on historical data (Sourced from NSE).

Accordingly, mirror projections for 5 Aug 11 are calculated as :
open =5280-51.8 (corresponding to CLOSE), high =5280-43.15 (corresponding to LOW), low=5280-154.5 (corresponding to HIGH) & close=5280-132.4 (corresponding to OPEN){Data pertaining 4 Aug 11}.

Calculations for SUBSEQUENT days were made SIMILARLY based on PRIOR days (eg., 8 Aug 11, 9 Aug 11 etc etc  3 Aug 11, 2 Aug 11 etc etc)

In the above image of Excel sheet , please notice that OHLC for Nifty from 5th August 2011, and the calculated 'Mirror projection' ; ratio of Actual to Projection are given under bluish shade. Chart, below, shows the total range :

And the Data are analysed as per the following parameters

A	0.99	1.01	60	13.51
B	0.98	1.02	57	12.84
C	0.97	1.03	32	7.21
D	0.96	1.04	39	8.78
E	0.95	1.05	33	7.43
X	< 0.95	> 1.05	94	21.17
XX	< 0.90	> 1.10	129	29.05
			444	100

  
It is observed that out of 444 cases, mis-matches (X & XX) are more than good matches (A with a variation of 1% or less), B (<2%), C (<3%), D (<4%) and E (<5%), however, the mystery of PAST influencing the PRESENT can not be brushed aside.

Note that on 12 March 2013 (latest worst mis-match), the Actual Nifty was 1.12 times the Projection for the said day, and on 26 March 2013 (latest best match), the Actual Nifty was 1.007 times the Projection for the said day. Projection for next week are also listed. 

Here is a super-imposed inverted chart on the Nifty chart since 04/08/2011.