What is Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis?

*

When most market analysts talk about timing the market, their opinions are often based on calculations made only on the price axis of the market.  Although price action can give important clues as to when a market is likely to top or bottom, a more accurate assessment can be made by also projecting and calculating from the TIME AXIS of the market.  

Synchronicity is defined as "meaningful coincidence."
What we do at Synchronicity is define the important highs and lows in a particular market and then run our projections and calculations using the ratios derived from the Fibonacci #series. We do this on both the price axis and time axis.  When we see a "meaningful coincidence" of either time or price parameters coming together, we identify a potential turning point in a market and a relatively low risk trade setup.

A coincidence of price parameters or time parameters by themselves will identify an opportunity in the market, however when we see trading parameters on both the Time andPrice axis come together at the same time, we are looking at our highest probability, lowest risk trade setups in the marketplace.

In the E-mini S&P example above, key Fibonacci price support was tested at the 1184.00-1185.00 area at the same time a Fibonacci "Time Cluster" was also tested. A tradable low developed into these time and price parameters. The initial rally off this time and price setup was 9.75 points.

Source: http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/

Vardhman Acrylic: Progress in Buy Back

A review of Data since 01-04-2010 is a revealing in the following Table & show utter disgust of the shareholders. It had a long history of being traded below the face value of rs. 10/-. But for recent buy back by the Company, it was a 'heart burn' to all shareholders.

Price { }	Days	Date	Average	Average Traded	Deliverable	% Dly Qt to
			Price	Quantity	Av Qty	Traded Qty
< 8.00	60	8-May-12	7.45	48845	44694	91.50
< 9.00	127	22-Jun-12	8.40	54691	47743	87.30
< 10.00	64	26-Jun-12	9.29	86049	76323	88.70
< 11.00	109	29-Jun-12	10.42	81505	68169	83.64

Date	Number of shares	Deliverable	Others	BB_Qty to	Average	Buy Back
	at NSE	Qty	Qty	Deli_Qty	Price	Rate

22-Jun-12	32971	46441	13470	71.00	8.89	8.93
25-Jun-12	0	19049	19049	0.00	9.13
26-Jun-12	335826	352526	16700	95.26	9.75	9.78
27-Jun-12	186788	205602	18814	90.85	10.11	10.13
28-Jun-12	284409	393537	109128	72.27	10.41	10.45
29-Jun-12	374050	463432	89382	80.71	10.82	10.90

Shareholders are so skeptic of the management's declaration of buy back at a price of maximum rs.12.50, that a numbers of them tendered shares below rs.9 even. Surprisingly, a few investors kept buying ahead of daily buy back rate & collectively gathered 6,12,369 shares. Their interventions forced the Company to raise the BB rate from an average of rs. 8.65 (till 22nd June 2012) to rs. 9.78 on 26th, 10.13 on 27th, 10.45 on 28th & 10.9 on 29th instant.

So far a total of 19,43,011 shares had been bought back, and another 30,56,989 shares must be bought back below rs.12.50 to fulfil the minimum quantaty requirement.

For my earlier post      http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/06/vardhman-acrylics-fixed-deposit-like.html

Nifty : Candles since 01-01-2011

High-Low Candles with Open-Close Candles

Nifty High-Low Candles with 13/34 days SMA

Open-Close Candles with 13/34 days SMA

Please click the link to review the Data sheet for the above charts.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Av41dGrpKfhMdGV5Y0g4a2ZrcjRtTnRFZE03cFRjWlE&output=html

Candles : One study for Nifty 2011-12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Av41dGrpKfhMdG9tVWVYZk5rQVhuVmdReUlfVS1TeFE&output=html

Please click the above & then the Chart. Chart covers Nifty since 2011. Top line charts "Opening" of Nifty, red line represents ratio of "High-Low" with "open" and  yellow line represents  ratio of "Open-Close" with "open". Both the ratio were scaled up  (as the value taken for "High-Low" & "Open-Close" are the actual multiply by 100)  ( in %).
 Chart is zoomable.

<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Av41dGrpKfhMdGV5Y0g4a2ZrcjRtTnRFZE03cFRjWlE&oid=4&zx=wkzve1oak1di" />

Best & Worst of the Nifty Index: A historical 'views'

Best of performance in Nse Nifty are tabulated herein below:-

Date	Open	High_Low	Open-Close	OC/Open
21-Jan-08	5705.00	727.90	496.20	8.70
24-Oct-08	2936.25	411.20	352.25	12.00
22-Jan-08	5203.35	754.85	304.05	5.84
3-Mar-08	5222.80	286.75	269.80	5.17
6-Jul-09	4429.60	346.10	263.90	5.96
11-Feb-08	5120.55	322.80	263.55	5.15
17-Dec-07	6037.95	299.35	260.95	4.32
18-May-06	3636.45	270.55	247.55	6.81
13-Mar-08	4868.70	288.65	245.10	5.03
17-Mar-08	4745.45	263.35	242.35	5.11
10-Oct-08	3502.05	303.10	222.10	6.34
21-Nov-07	5778.80	259.20	217.75	3.77
6-Oct-08	3817.30	239.25	214.95	5.63
11-Nov-08	3147.20	227.75	208.55	6.63
31-Mar-08	4942.15	243.15	207.65	4.20
18-Jan-08	5907.75	231.75	202.45	3.43
18-Oct-07	5551.10	467.15	200.10	3.60
17-Oct-08	3269.05	289.35	194.70	5.96
17-May-04	1582.50	291.60	193.75	12.24
7-Jan-09	3112.80	259.00	192.40	6.18
17-Aug-09	4578.80	204.20	190.90	4.17
7-Feb-08	5322.55	230.75	189.30	3.56
16-Aug-07	4366.00	194.85	187.40	4.29
2-Apr-07	3820.00	203.00	186.40	4.88
1-Aug-07	4528.85	193.15	183.00	4.04
15-Oct-08	3517.90	193.95	179.50	5.10
27-Jun-08	4315.30	196.10	178.65	4.14
15-Jul-08	4039.30	205.20	178.20	4.41
24-Jan-08	5208.00	361.40	174.55	3.35
27-Jul-07	4618.65	194.65	173.45	3.76
22-May-06	3254.30	417.50	172.95	5.31
22-Oct-08	3234.70	183.95	169.55	5.24
3-Jul-08	4094.60	222.50	168.85	4.12
27-Feb-12	5448.10	181.65	166.90	3.06
5-Nov-08	3155.75	269.55	160.80	5.10
17-Jun-09	4515.35	185.00	159.20	3.53
15-Sep-08	4231.95	281.85	159.05	3.76
9-Dec-10	5924.25	185.00	157.75	2.66
20-Jun-08	4504.20	198.40	156.65	3.48
27-Jan-10	5008.50	175.45	155.40	3.10
16-Nov-10	6143.45	173.45	154.75	2.52
8-Jun-09	4582.35	206.75	152.45	3.33
15-Jan-08	6226.35	207.15	152.10	2.44
5-Mar-07	3726.50	172.15	150.00	4.03

Best day was 'quantumwise' 21st January 2008 and percentagewise was 12.24% rise 17th May 2004. Surprisingly, there were four days when it is FLAT as

Date Open High_Low Open-Close OC/Open
4-Sep-01 1048.20 9.95 0.00 0.00
1-Nov-02 951.45 10.55 0.00 0.00
13-Aug-04 1598.20 21.10 0.00 0.00
2-Aug-07 4356.35 72.75 0.00 0.00

Of the four , 02nd Auhust 2007 was flat in spite of interday flactuation of 72.75. But more disturbing were these falls of over 150 points detailed :

Date Open High_Low Open-Close OC/Open
2-Apr-09 3061.05 167.70 -150.00 -4.90
23-Dec-09 4990.05 160.55 -154.55 -3.10
28-Oct-08 2526.20 169.75 -158.40 -6.27
3-Nov-08 2885.40 176.65 -158.45 -5.49
27-May-09 4117.30 171.20 -158.75 -3.86
13-Apr-11 5747.95 188.05 -163.55 -2.85
15-Jun-06 2634.10 180.05 -164.70 -6.25
9-Jul-08 3990.90 178.50 -166.20 -4.16
10-May-10 5026.60 176.70 -167.00 -3.32
10-Nov-08 2973.30 187.95 -174.95 -5.88
4-May-09 3478.70 185.80 -175.30 -5.04
1-Feb-08 5140.60 249.20 -176.65 -3.44
19-Sep-07 4550.25 188.75 -182.10 -4.00
31-Oct-08 2696.30 225.05 -189.30 -7.02
29-Oct-07 5708.90 213.60 -197.00 -3.45
2-Jul-08 3895.30 258.90 -198.05 -5.08
19-Sep-08 4040.80 221.85 -204.45 -5.06
24-Dec-07 5771.30 229.75 -213.80 -3.70
13-Oct-08 3272.90 237.30 -217.80 -6.65
23-Jul-08 4246.70 244.85 -230.10 -5.42
14-Nov-07 5703.95 250.15 -233.95 -4.10
15-Oct-07 5428.35 262.75 -242.05 -4.46
14-Feb-08 4944.65 275.60 -257.35 -5.20
25-Mar-08 4616.80 280.00 -260.70 -5.65
9-Oct-07 5062.65 347.75 -264.60 -5.23
23-Oct-07 5185.30 311.65 -288.40 -5.56
23-Jan-08 4903.05 436.45 -300.35 -6.13
25-Jan-08 5035.05 364.20 -348.30 -6.92
18-May-09 3673.15 711.15 -650.00 -17.70

18th May 2009 remains worst performing day both quantumwise & percentage terms.

Nse Nifty Index : Another Analysis

http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2012/06/nse-nifty-index-alalysis-of-its-candle.html
has covered the entire NSE Nifty.

In the present study, I have presented the study with "Opening" range in minds; that is candles were sub-grouped with Index Range at the opening, eg., 0-1500, 1500.05-3000, 3000.05-4500, 4500.05-6000 & 6000.05 or more. As there are just a few  data with candles in the range of 250.05-300, 300.05-350, 350.05-400 & 400.05 or more, it was decided to merge them in a single range 250.05 or more. Results are summarised herein below:

NSE NIFTY Candles : Big Rises

R A N G E

200.05

250.00

DATE	Open	High	Low	Close	Candle Size
23-May-06	3068.60	3221.05	2997.35	3199.35	223.70
31-May-06	3181.95	3181.95	2972.90	3071.05	209.05
28-Feb-07	3893.40	3893.40	3674.85	3745.30	218.55
2-Apr-07	3820.00	3820.00	3617.00	3633.60	203.00
3-Oct-07	5069.00	5261.35	5034.15	5210.80	227.20
8-Oct-07	5186.25	5249.30	5024.75	5085.10	224.55
26-Oct-07	5564.25	5716.90	5513.35	5702.30	203.55
29-Oct-07	5708.90	5922.50	5708.90	5905.90	213.60
2-Nov-07	5854.85	5944.75	5714.25	5932.40	230.50
22-Nov-07	5564.65	5608.65	5394.35	5519.35	214.30
24-Dec-07	5771.30	6001.05	5771.30	5985.10	229.75
10-Jan-08	6278.10	6347.00	6142.90	6156.95	204.10
15-Jan-08	6226.35	6260.45	6053.30	6074.25	207.15
16-Jan-08	6065.00	6065.00	5825.75	5935.75	239.25
18-Jan-08	5907.75	5908.75	5677.00	5705.30	231.75
1-Feb-08	5140.60	5339.95	5090.75	5317.25	249.20
4-Feb-08	5315.55	5545.20	5315.55	5463.50	229.65
6-Feb-08	5470.40	5470.40	5257.05	5322.55	213.35
7-Feb-08	5322.55	5344.60	5113.85	5133.25	230.75
15-Feb-08	5202.85	5315.40	5104.75	5302.90	210.65
7-Mar-08	4918.30	4918.30	4672.25	4771.60	246.05
31-Mar-08	4942.15	4947.00	4703.85	4734.50	243.15
15-Apr-08	4779.95	4917.10	4708.30	4879.65	208.80
9-Jun-08	4626.45	4626.45	4411.60	4500.95	214.85
3-Jul-08	4094.60	4097.35	3874.85	3925.75	222.50
11-Jul-08	4166.00	4215.50	4014.45	4049.00	201.05
15-Jul-08	4039.30	4040.70	3835.50	3861.10	205.20
23-Jul-08	4246.70	4491.55	4246.70	4476.80	244.85
19-Sep-08	4040.80	4262.65	4040.80	4245.25	221.85
29-Sep-08	3990.20	3997.55	3777.30	3850.05	220.25
6-Oct-08	3817.30	3820.85	3581.60	3602.35	239.25
13-Oct-08	3272.90	3510.20	3272.90	3490.70	237.30
16-Oct-08	3333.85	3333.85	3099.90	3269.30	233.95
31-Oct-08	2696.30	2921.35	2696.30	2885.60	225.05
11-Nov-08	3147.20	3147.20	2919.45	2938.65	227.75
8-Apr-09	3255.35	3357.05	3149.25	3342.95	207.80
8-Jun-09	4582.35	4611.40	4404.65	4429.90	206.75
17-Aug-09	4578.80	4578.80	4374.60	4387.90	204.20
9-Aug-11	4947.90	5167.00	4946.45	5072.85	220.55

R A N G E		250.05	300.00
DATE	Open	High	Low	Close	Candle Size
17-May-04	1582.50	1583.80	1292.20	1388.75	291.60
18-May-06	3636.45	3636.45	3365.90	3388.90	270.55
19-May-06	3391.85	3493.05	3205.25	3246.90	287.80
15-Oct-07	5428.35	5682.65	5419.90	5670.40	262.75
19-Oct-07	5360.35	5390.85	5101.75	5215.30	289.10
14-Nov-07	5703.95	5950.20	5700.05	5937.90	250.15
21-Nov-07	5778.80	5790.05	5530.85	5561.05	259.20
17-Dec-07	6037.95	6039.95	5740.60	5777.00	299.35
14-Feb-08	4944.65	5220.25	4944.65	5202.00	275.60
3-Mar-08	5222.80	5222.80	4936.05	4953.00	286.75
13-Mar-08	4868.70	4868.80	4580.15	4623.60	288.65
17-Mar-08	4745.45	4745.45	4482.10	4503.10	263.35
25-Mar-08	4616.80	4896.80	4616.80	4877.50	280.00
2-Jul-08	3895.30	4107.15	3848.25	4093.35	258.90
15-Sep-08	4231.95	4237.25	3955.40	4072.90	281.85
18-Sep-08	4005.25	4050.10	3799.55	4038.15	250.55
30-Sep-08	3848.70	3966.85	3715.05	3921.20	251.80
8-Oct-08	3604.40	3604.40	3329.45	3513.65	274.95
17-Oct-08	3269.05	3335.95	3046.60	3074.35	289.35
5-Nov-08	3155.75	3240.55	2971.00	2994.95	269.55
7-Jan-09	3112.80	3147.20	2888.20	2920.40	259.00

R A N G E		R A N G E		300.1	or more
DATE	Open	High	Low	Close	Candle Size
22-May-06	3254.30	3313.90	2896.40	3081.35	417.50
9-Oct-07	5062.65	5348.70	5000.95	5327.25	347.75
17-Oct-07	5658.90	5658.90	5107.30	5559.30	551.60
18-Oct-07	5551.10	5736.80	5269.65	5351.00	467.15
23-Oct-07	5185.30	5488.50	5176.85	5473.70	311.65
21-Jan-08	5705.00	5705.00	4977.10	5208.80	727.90
22-Jan-08	5203.35	5203.35	4448.50	4899.30	754.85
23-Jan-08	4903.05	5328.05	4891.60	5203.40	436.45
24-Jan-08	5208.00	5357.20	4995.80	5033.45	361.40
25-Jan-08	5035.05	5399.25	5035.05	5383.35	364.20
28-Jan-08	5380.95	5380.95	5071.00	5274.10	309.95
11-Feb-08	5120.55	5126.40	4803.60	4857.00	322.80
10-Oct-08	3502.05	3502.05	3198.95	3279.95	303.10
24-Oct-08	2936.25	2936.25	2525.05	2584.00	411.20
27-Oct-08	2583.75	2585.30	2252.75	2524.20	332.55
18-May-09	3673.15	4384.30	3673.15	4323.15	711.15
19-May-09	4324.95	4509.40	4167.65	4318.45	341.75
6-Jul-09	4429.60	4479.80	4133.70	4165.70	346.10