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Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Vardhman Acrylics : Buy back is destined to Fail


Chart shows the most of volumes were during price at higher than the maximum rate of Rs. 12.50 set for the on-going buy back. With a broker who loves "squazing" all juices out of "nimbu" and investors are , generally, NOT in the habit of selling off at a loss, the buy back scheme is bound to be failure. I shall be surprised if it manages it manages to CROSS ONE CRORE OF SHARES MARK EVEN .

Data of trading & delivery in Vardhman Acrylics are analysed hereinbelow (Source: NSE quotation)

Price { } Days Date Average Average Traded Deliverable % Dly Qt to
Price Quantity Av Qty Traded Qty
< 8.00 60 8-May-12 7.45 48845 44694 91.50
< 9.00 119 12-Jun-12 8.38 56181 48813 86.89
< 10.00 62 11-Nov-11 9.29 82069 72792 88.70
< 11.00 106 4-Aug-11 10.42 73101 60075 82.18
< 12.00 52 15-Jun-11 11.25 200980 142600 70.95
< 13.00 31 5-May-11 12.11 217096 156783 72.22
< 14.00 61 15-Nov-10 13.32 268613 200795 74.75
< 15.00 44 28-Oct-10 14.45 474810 338689 71.33
< 16.00 22 27-Oct-10 15.52 725910 511774 70.50
>16.00 5 6-Aug-10 16.19 1140823 802271 70.32


First let me explain the table: column I is Price range below 8, column II is number of days traded in that range and last day in that range is shown in next column, average price, traded volume, delivery volume & percentage of delivery to trade are listed.

Significantly,  2,67,86,566 shares (out of 7,40,67,987 shares delivered during 01/04/2010 & 12/06/2012) were traded in the price range of Rs. 12 or lower; my observations are investors cling to their holding & MOSTLY do NOT sell off at a loss.

IMHO, the buy back scheme is destined to fail & may not cross the half mark even.


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